UFC 87 Predictions and Betting Picks
J.D Driscoll - August 8th, 2008 .J.D Driscoll and guest handicapper Jim at Talk Bets bring you their expert UFC 87 predictions and betting picks.
A week does not go by without a major MMA card in recent months and UFC bettors could not be happier. If you haven’t tried it yourself you really cant relate to fun of having a substantial amount of money on a MMA fight.
The UFN and affliction double header was another profitable weekend for us with our only pick Josh Barnett easily accounting for Pedro Rizzo on the night.
UFC 87 looks like a deep and star studded card despite being a little chalky. Four of the five underdogs on the main card are in the 200+ range. The under card looks a lot more competitive with several pick em fights that should provide plenty of value when the preliminary card hit’s the board. (Update preliminary card lines have just been released and are available below and at our dedicated UFC 87 odds page)
For visitors looking for a place to bet on UFC 87 I recommended heading over to Bookmaker.com . Onto our UFC 87 predictions and picks. (Note: Selected best bets are outlined at the very end.)
Georges St. Pierre (-500) vs. John Fitch (+300)
Odds from Bookmaker are accurate at the time of publishing. Visit the official website for confirmation.
J.D: John Fitch, primarily a wrestler holds, a 15-2 MMA record and is undefeated in his past 14. His UFC record stands at 7-0.
He is one of the lower profiled fighters to ever receive a title shot. While hardcore fans may be familiar with him he is yet to achieve the same name recognition as other title contenders in the UFC. He went 3-0 in the organization before making his first appearance in a live telecast. His style may be partly to blame. He is not one of the more dynamic or exciting fighters in the division but his success thus far vindicates him. He has faced several top ranked UFC welterweights with his most notable wins coming against Josh Burkman, Thiago Alves, Diego Sanchez.
He is well rounded and poses a decent overall skill set, however clearly St Perrie has the same qualities. The question is were can he win this fight. The only answer is a superior game plan.
This will be his first title fight, his first fight that may go beyond round three and his toughest test by far. While being impressive in his UFC career to date, he is yet to showcase the outstanding qualities and talent required to trouble someone like GSP.
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre has a 16-2 professional MMA record, with a 10-2 record in the UFC, he is on a three fight unbeaten streak since his loss to Matt Serra at UFC 69 . GSP is one of those fighters that add something new to their game each time he fights. He is also one of the few fighters who’s stand-up is as effective as their ground game. His stand-up on its own while very good is not spectacular however what really makes it potent is the constant threat of a takedown. Most recently he been working on his jiu-jitsu training at Gracie Barra in Rio de Janeiro.
Though I like St Perrie to retain his title, the line seems about right. I’m staying clear. Prediction: St Perrie Decision.
Jim: GSP has the advantage in practically every area. Fitch has a background in wrestling but as we have seen before, pure wrestling does not necessarily mean he’ll actually have the advantage in that area. GSP has already displayed a phenomenal ability to stuff takedowns. I see a GSP with a TKO win over Fitch in the 3rd or 4th round. Bet GSP at (-335) St Pierre (1/2 unit).
Brock Lesnar (-270) vs. Heath Herring (+210)
J.D: Both men are at precarious points in their careers and should be fully motivated. Lesnar comes with a huge price tag and has plenty to prove. Heath Herring once considered one of the best heavyweights in the world looks to make his mark on US soil and possibly earn a title shot with a win here.
Herring has fought bigger, better and more dangerous opponents then the man he will face on Saturday night. At Pride 23 he faced a then unknown Russian fighter named Fedor Emelianenko. Herring entered the fight as the clear favorite and number one contender to Pride heavyweight title. Fedor was at hist best taking Herring down early and demonstrating his famous ground attack. 8 minutes into the round Herring managed to reverse Fedor and launch a ground and bound assault of his own. Its that kind of experience he’ll be able to draw upon on Saturday.
He is the kind of fighter that is able drag out fight. The further the fight goes the more likely it is that he’ll be able to expose Lesnar. Coming of the surprise Kongo win he will be in near peak mental condition ready for another 3 round war. Continue to read J.D’s complete predictions for the Lesnar vs. Herring bout here.
Jim: The question in this fight is what will Herring do off his back. It is inevitable that Lesnar will take Herring down. Lesnar’s obvious weakness is submissions and that is all Herring needs to know. Tricky fight to find value in because of unknowns.
Kenny Florian (-145) vs. Roger Huerta (+115)
J.D: This is one of those fights that every pundit touts at the potential fight of the year. More often than not these turn out to be complete fizzlers.
While these two are promising up and comers they so far behind the current lightweight champion in talent that the result of this fight really has no meaning as long as Penn stays at 155 lb. And with the winner possibly getting a title shot it really is a sad state of affairs.
Kenny Florian made his mark in the sport as part of the season 1 Ultimate Fighter. His professional record stands at 9-3 with 7-2 in the UFC. His most notable performances include decisive wins over Joe Lauzon and Din Thomas. What has been most impressive about his career thus far has been his transformation from BJJ black belt alone to versatile dynamic striker with brutal low kicks. His striking is quite technical and his leg kicks have been particularly impressive. However he has yet to be tested since that transformation. His win over Thomas could have been a “no contest“ and the victory over Lauzon was mostly due to Lauzon beating himself rather the other way around.
Roger Huerta’s 20-1-1 MMA, 6-0 UFC record looks more impressive than it really is. His record is padded sub par competition. When he made his first major step up in competition against Clay Guida he looked less than impressive. I still think tough that he has good of a decision victory if he can take Florian to the floor. He is coming of 9 month layoff after a hectic 2007, ring rust will be factor and is the major reason I’m staying clear. (Prediction: Florian Decision)
Jim: An evenly matched fight with two fighters that can take tremendous punishment. Make no mistake about this fight, it will be fast paced up and down battle. This also has the makings for a fight of the night. Florian outpoints Huerta to win a close decision. I’m betting (+155) Florian/Huerta go to Decision (1.5 unit).
Jason MacDonald (+220) vs. Demian Maia (-300)
J.D: Demian Maia is the real deal. He is 7-0 MMA and 2-0 in the UFC. While is yet to face an elite weltherweight he has been very impressive in his wins over Ed Herman and Rayan Jenson. He is widely regarded as one of the best BJJ fighter in the world at the moment. I cant see UFC veteran Jason MacDonald stopping him. Prediction: Maia round 1 submission.
Jim: Maia has the submission and ground advantage however his cardio remains a weakness. If Maia can pace himself and control MacDonald on the ground, he will win via submission.
Manvel Gamburyan (-265) vs Rob Emerson (+210)
J.D: Both of these guys launched their UFC careers on The Ultimate Fighter 5. Robert “The Saint” Emerson failed to win a single fight on the show and was lucky to record a no contest on the final while Gamburyan made it all the way to final. The odds accurately reflect both fighters chances, I‘m staying clear. Prediction Gamburyan Decision.
Jim: Gamburyan is a machine. He will bully his way in and manhandle you. Emerson likely has the more technical stand-up but Manny has that compact power. I see Manny bull rushing Emerson and submitting him on the ground with a choke. I’m taking Gamburyan at – 320 (1/2 unit).
For a live play by play of the event visit our friends at Sherdog and the guys at the Savage Science. These guys know this sport inside out. For the most up to date lines live lines for the entire card visit Bookmaker.com.
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2 comments | Add One
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1 moun-888 - 08/9/2008 at 10:46 am
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2 UFC 87 Predictions Part 2: The Preliminary Card - 08/9/2008 at 7:48 pm
[...] is the second part of our UFC 87 predictions and picks post. For further UFC 87 coverage make sure to check out our detailed analysis of the heavyweight [...]
Its a mma fight not a jijistu. Macdonald is the best underdog on the card.