Anticipating Line and Odds Movement
Robert K - January 29th, 2008 .One of the trickiest factors in the world of sports betting is the fluidity of the market. Pointspreads and money lines aren’t frozen in space and time. Should you bet now, or try to wait for a better number? Is there a chance that waiting will actually lead to a worse number? If you see line movement, is the market reacting to “smart money” from informed bettors, or “dumb money” from the general public.
Those who have made their living as sports bettors learned long ago that reading the market is one of the biggest keys to success. Each sport has its unique characteristics. That’s beyond the scope of what we have space for today. But, you can follow these general guidelines when trying to make decisions.
*First, make your own number or odds on any proposition before the market opens. If you don’t know that the right number should be, it’s unlikely you have an expertise that’s going to win money over the long haul. If you have a methodology for creating the proper numbers, but you don’t get started until after the market opens, then you’ll miss out on many great opportunities. Both of these are key. Make your own numbers, AND have them ready before the market opens.
*Second, remember the general rule that markets move toward the favorites given time. If professional wagerers prefer the favorite in a matchup, they’ll attack a soft early number in a way that will cause it to move immediately. If the pro’s pass, the public will eventually make its presence felt and drive the line toward favorites anyway. This seems to be a part of human nature all over the world. The public believes the superior team or athlete’s quality provides some extra insurance, while any bet on the lesser team or individual could turn to disaster at any moment. This gradual movement will create underdog plays for you later in the process. If your number agreed with the market number at the opening, it will very likely trigger a play on the underdog by closing. Be prepared to bet favorites early, and underdogs late.
*Chart the movements in your market and compare them to the actual results. You’ll soon develop a sense of when “sharp” bettors are making their move. Winners tend to leave fingerprints at the scene of their victories! There are many sports bettors who make more money based on their knowledge of “smart money” signals than from their knowledge of the sports themselves. Learn to see these signals!
*If you focus your handicapping on just one or two areas, try to chart the markets in other sports. A trained eye will find those smart money signals just from the act of comparing money flow to actual results. For example, you may not have developed a handicapping approach for the international tennis tours. But, if you can find the smart money signals, you can be betting along with the best minds in tennis even if you can’t pronounce the players names!
Markets are fluid. Standing still in the current, or, worse, trying to go against the current can have dire consequences. But, if you get moving in the right direction, the current can take you places you never dreamed of. Start making an effort immediately to exploit the full advantages of a fluid sports market.
