Jim Murphys Superbowl XLII Plays Part 2
Jim Murphy - February 2nd, 2008 .SUPERBOWL TOTAL AND GENERAL NOTES:
The relatively low number for this game surprises me and likely reflects the fact that the last 3 Superbowls have gone UNDER. Maybe there’s also a little public perception involved, as most of the “public” looks outside and sees nasty winter weather. Problem is this game is going to be played in Tempe, AZ under a retractable roof dome. The weather forecast calls for showers, which means there’s a good chance the dome will be closed. If it doesn’t rain the game will be played in mild temps with gusty winds—though nothing that either team hasn’t dealt with playing in their respective venues.
Before the recent UNDER streak noted above, the Superbowl had gone 14-5-1 OVER since the first official number was posted in 1985. That’s a 70% OVER percentage. The final week matchup between the two teams saw over 70 points scored. The two most likely scenarios for this game are another matchup similar to that one with the Giants and Pats trading points, or a dominant Patriot performance where we know that Bill Bilichick isn’t averse to rolling up the score to punctuate his team’s historical greatness.
The Patriots went OVER in 10 of their first 12 regular season games before the weather began to turn bad and their offense became more possession oriented. My projections indicate a final score in the mid 60’s, putting this game well OVER the total.
In fact, the OVER play on the total may be a much better position than the side. In either of the two most likely scenarios—a close “shootout” or a Patriot domination—you’re in good position with the total. In a game with two potent offenses, one team shooting for the history books with a coach not shy about running up the score, good weather and a relatively low total the OVER is the way to go.
SUPER BOWL TOTAL: New England/New York Giants OVER 54
Above all else, remember that the Superbowl is just another wagering opportunity in a never-ending series of them. That’s why during my tenure in the handicapping business I’ve always given away the Superbowl side and total free. For a sports handicapper that’s heresy—the garden variety touts are trying to convince you that this is the STRONGEST SUPERBOWL EVER or that they’ve got INSIDE INFORMATION THAT WILL ABSOLUTELY DETERMINE THE OUTCOME. It isn’t and they don’t. That’s just hype and this is just another game. I can promise you that this is a “LOCK” because there’s no such thing. I can promise you that I’ve given this game as much or more analysis than anyone looking for you to call a $50 900 number or hand over your credit card digits.
Don’t “unload” on this game—just play it and enjoy it. I’m looking at the Don Best screen right now and I know for a fact that there will be games to bet on tomorrow and every day after that.
Super Bowl Betting
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One comment | Add One
Jim,
Enjoy your expertise. You also know how to pick out scams. What would you do if one of the well known handicappers took $500 from you and promised you that you would own a share in the Vegas Hilton contest and then never responded when asked for the name of the contestant so you could follow the progress? I’ll tell you who did this to me if you respond.