MMA Betting: EliteXC Preview and Picks

Jim Murphy - February 14th, 2008 .

MMA betting frequently offers good value opportunities—in fact, there may be more “bad lines” posted on MMA than any other sport at the moment. The reasons for this are fairly obvious in that linesmakers are not only dealing with a “new” sport but very chaotic new sport at that. Upsets abound in mixed martial arts, making it more difficult to set an accurate line on fights. Additionally, once you get below the top 20 or so fighters in the world there’s a lot of parity. This is compounded by the fact that there’s not a clear cut “career path” for young fighters to take as they work their way up the ranks. Top tier MMA fighters have come from traditional martial arts, amateur wrestling, pro wrestling and—in the case of Kimbo Slice, one of the headliners on this weekend’s EliteXC event to be broadcast on Showtime in the US—videotaped street fights that became an Internet phenomenon on YouTube.

While I feel strongly that the aforementioned Kimbo Slice will win easily in his matchup against UFC vet Tank Abbott, there’s not much value in laying -450 (bodoglife.com) to take a position on him. Were I interested in laying a big chalk price on this card I’d probably look at betting -301 on massive Antonio Silva in his fight against another name from the early days of the UFC, Ricco Rodriguez. The massive (6’4” 300 pound) Silva is not only a devastating striker, but is insanely agile for his size with an impressive Brazilian Jiu Jitsu repertoire. He’s somewhat raw and could benefit from more in-ring experience but there’s no shortage of MMA aficionados who’ve branded Silva as a dominant fighter of the future.
The strongest play on the card in my estimation is a very nice value position among the preliminary fights featuring a fighter that is a sizable underdog in what should be at worst a “pick’em” fight:

Yves Edwards -266 (1.38 )
James Edson Berto +246 (3.64 )

(Odds from Pinnacle) US visitors check out Bodog for latest EliteXC and UFC betting odds.

Results will be posted here at the end of the night.

The favorite in this lightweight matchup, Yves Edwards, is a solid veteran fighter who’s been around forever (since 1997, which *is* forever by MMA standards) and now could likely be considered a “journeyman”. At this point of his career he’s probably not someone who’ll be in the championship mix but remains a good “measuring stick” for up and coming fighters—he’s a tough guy who’s seen it all, and always shows up in shape and ready to fight. Those are all admirable characteristics for a prize fighter but not enough to justify this price. Furthermore, while Edwards certainly is a “game fighter” the reality is that he’s got a less than stellar 3-5 record in his L8 fights. The case could be made that Edwards is on the downside of his career and to lay a chalk price on such a fighter is insane. Were Edwards the underdog here you might be able to look past his recent struggles and focus on the fact that you’re getting a nice value price on a technically sound, experienced fighter. In this situation, however, there’s nowhere to look in this matchup but the other side.

James Edson Berto is the brother of promising welterweight boxer Andre Berto and enters this matchup with a 13-4 record. Like many newcomers to the sport, he took some time getting a feel for MMA and after his first 7 fights his record stood at 4-3. It appears that he’s “turned the corner” in his development as an MMA fighter and since a 2005 split decision loss to Brazilian Adriano Pereira has posted an impressive 9-1-1 mark. His only loss came at an EliteXC card to the organizations current Lightweight champ, tough KJ Noons. Berto was giving a decent account of himself in the fight until he ate a Noons knee strike full force early in the 3rd frame resulting in a KO loss. I’m more impressed by the fact that he’d done well in the fight up until his KO loss since the reality is that any fighter that takes a full impact knee to the head is going to sleep.

Berto is the younger, stronger fighter and while Edwards certainly has the edge in experience and likely in technical skill that’s not enough to justify the price on him. At worst, this is a fight that could go either way and you could make the case that Berto should be a slight favorite. Considering that the theoretical “break even” point at +246 is right around 29%, this is a very nice value on what should be a competitive fight. If you had the opportunity to take +246 payback on a coin flip you’d be stupid not to take it. At worst, this is what you’re doing here and in my opinion you’re getting the better, younger fighter in better form at a healthy underdog price.

BET JAMES EDSON BERTO +246 OVER YVES EDWARDS @ ELITE XC MMA 2/16/08 (lines from Pinnacle) US visitors check out bodoglife.com for the latest odds.

If you’re not able to watch the event live you can follow the round by round coverage online at Prophet Fighting. The broadcast begins at 10 PM Eastern Standard Time and we’ll pick up the round by round coverage at that time. Check out Bodog and Bookmaker for the latest odds for this card.

Click here for part 2 of my preview of EliteXC Street Certified card.

Click here for part 3: Final thoughts on the Kimbo vs Tank matchup.

Up next UFC 82 and Strikeforce ‘Shamrock vs. Cung Le’.

 

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7 comments | Add One

1. 1 memerve - 02/14/2008 at 8:36 pm

    

   Uefa Cup Nürnberg AH +1 1.95 bet365

    

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2. 2 ProphetFighting » EliteXC MMA betting advice at BetWWX - 02/15/2008 at 3:19 am

    

   [...] MMA Betting: EliteXC Preview and Picks @ BetWWX.com [...]

    

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3. 3 BetWWX - 02/17/2008 at 8:16 am

    

   ELITEXC RESULTS AND FINAL OODS

   MAIN CARD
   TANK ABBOTT VS. KIMBO SLICE (-450)
   Kimbo Slice def. Tank Abbott via knockout (strikes) — Round 1, 0:43.

   RICCO RODRIGUEZ VS. ANTONIO SILVA (-305)
   Antonio Silva def. Ricco Rodriguez via split decision (28-29, 30-27, 29-28).

   KYLE NOKE (-130) VS. SCOTT SMITH
   Scott Smith def. Kyle Noke via KO (punch) — Round 1, 0:07.

   EDSON BERTO VS. YVES EDWARDS (-270)
   Yves Edwards def. Edson Berto via KO (knee) — Round 1, 4:56.

   BRETT ROGERS (+175) VS. JAMES THOMPSON
   Brett Rogers def. James Thompson via knockout (strikes) — Round 1, 2:24.

   UNDERCARD
   JOHN DOYLE VS. RAFAEL FEIJO
   Rafael Feijao def. John Doyle via TKO (strikes) — Round 1, 2:17.

   YOSMANY CABEZAS VS. JON KIRK
   Yosmany Cabezas def. John Kirk via submission (rear-naked choke) — Round 2, 0:58.

   DAVE HERMAN VS. MARIO RINALDI
   Dave Herman def. Mario Rinaldi via TKO (strikes) — Round 3, 0:33.

   ERIC BRADLEY VS. MIKEY GOMEZ
   Eric Bradley def. Mikey Gomez via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27).

   JIRKA HLAVATY VS. MOYSES GABIN
   Moyses Gabin def. Jirka Hlavaty via TKO (cut) —Round 1, 2:32

    

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4. 4 Jim Murphy - 02/17/2008 at 8:27 am

    

   Edwards wins by KO with a late round knee strike. Berto apparently has a problem with those. First round was pretty competitive–maybe a slight edge to Edwards–until Berto goes for a single leg and Edwards forcefully introduces the knee of the free leg to his mouth. Sometimes “value plays” work and sometimes they don’t but in the long run if you go where the value is you’ll make money. Even after watching this fight if these two guys fought again next weekend at the same price I’d take a position on Berto

    

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5. 5 BetWWX - 02/17/2008 at 12:09 pm

    

   –Brett Rogers KO’d James Thompson @ 2:24 of the first round. That was a +181 winner for our BetWWX readers.
   –Yves Edwards by KO over Edson Berton @ 4:56 of the first. That was our other BetWWX play–this -100 loss puts us at +81 for the night
   –Scott Smith by KO over Kyle Noke at :08 of round 2
   –Antonio Silva by 3 round split decision over Ricco Rodriguez
   –Kimbo beats Tank Abbott by KO at :43 of round one

    

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6. 6 EliteXC Street Certified: Kimbo vs Tank Final Thoughts | Free Betting Tips and Betting Advice - 02/20/2008 at 11:18 am

    

   [...] Check out part one of this weeks MMA picks at MMA Betting: EliteXC Preview and Picks. [...]

    

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7. 7 MMA Betting: Jim’s Saturday Night EliteXC Plays Part 2 | Free Betting Tips and Betting Advice - 02/20/2008 at 11:22 am

    

   [...] Check out part one of this weeks MMA picks at MMA Betting: EliteXC Preview and Picks. [...]

    

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