MMA Betting: Jim’s Saturday Night EliteXC Plays Part 2
Jim Murphy - February 15th, 2008 .BET BRETT ROGERS +181 OVER JAMES THOMPSON @ ELITE XC MMA (WIN)
Like virtually all serious sports wagering, betting MMA is all about finding value. If you bet on “undervalued” fighters and against “overvalued” fighters over the long run you’ll make money. The biggest mistake that neophyte sports gamblers make is thinking that serious handicapping is all about teams, players, injuries and matchups. The reality is that those are simply components of what serious sports handicapping is really about: it’s all about numbers.
The beautiful thing about betting moneyline underdogs is that you drastically lower the breakeven percentage you need to surpass in order to show a profit. Most people understand the basics of the breakeven percentage—at +100 (even money) if you win more than 50% of your wagers you’ll show a profit. If you’re laying the 11/10 (-110) required for most pointspread wagers you need to win more than 52.4% of the time to stay in the black. Nevertheless, its funny how many “chalk eaters” who’ll gladly throw down -200 or more on what they perceive to be a “sure thing” don’t understand this concept. If you’re betting a -200 favorite you have to win more than 66.7% of the time to turn a profit. That’s why when you make the decision to “lay the wood” you need to make damn sure you’re getting quality for the “high price” you’re paying.
On Saturday night’s EliteXC MMA card there’s a heavyweight bout where one fighter is a -200 favorite and I’m of the opinion that its not justified. In other words, the underdog in this matchup presents an attractive wagering value:
James Thompson -201 (1.50)
Brett Rogers +181 (2.81)
Odds from Pinnacle. US visitors check out Bodog for latest MMA and UFC betting odds.
James Thompson is big. Real big. 6’5” 265 pounds of “big”. At first glance he bears an uncanny resemblance to one of the world’s top heavyweight boxers, Wladimir Klitschko. Unfortunately, the only thing he shares with the highly skilled “Steel Hammer” Dr. Klitschko is a superficial similarity. Thompson is big, and for all I know may be a very nice and decent guy. One thing he’s not, however, is a particularly skillful fighter. We’ll talk more about that in a moment.
His opponent here is a relative unknown guy named Brett Rogers. Rogers is a big dude himself, a rugged black guy with a “Mr. T” style Mohawk haircut. While Rogers has fought a somewhat undistinguished level of opposition so far, he’s 5-0 in his MMA career with none of his fights making it out of the first round. He won his EliteXC debut against Ralph Kelly last November by submission (his opponent tapped rather than get hit any more) and his other 4 wins are all by KO/TKO. Its always hard to tell what will happen with a fighter who’s dominated overmatched opponents—are they “up and coming fighters” or will they be exposed when they step up in class? His level of competition notwithstanding, what we do know about Rogers is that he’s got very heavy hands and he’s not at all shy about using them.
Thompson is somewhat hard to figure based on his recent record. On one hand, he’s 2-5 in his L7 fights with all 5 losses coming by TKO or submission (4 in the first round). On the other hand, the two victories during that stretch are pretty impressive—TKO wins in PRIDE bouts against former Olympic judo gold medalist Hidehiko Yoshida and one of the toughest SOB’s walking the face of the earth, Don Frye. And while those are certainly impressive victories, it’s the level of opposition he’s lost to that concerns me more: his last fight, for example, was a loss to a fighter at a similar place in his career as Rogers named Neil Grove. Thompson lost this one by KO at the ten second mark of the first round. The rest of his losses aren’t exactly shameful—certainly no shame in losing to tough Kazuyuki Fujita and two of his other losses are to decent fighters. Still, consider the fight Thompson lost between his victories over Yoshida and Frye: that was a loss to none other than Eric “Butterbean” Esch at 0:43 of the first round.
I probably don’t need to make any more of a case against Thompson than emphasizing the fact that laying -200 with a guy that has a loss to “Butterbean” on his resume is a longterm losing strategy. In all seriousness, unless Thompson is in against a fighter that he can completely overwhelm with his size he’s proven to be very “beatable”. Brett Rogers may be something of an unknown, but he’s got good size and strength and in the past that’s been enough to beat Thompson.
So why is Thompson a -200 favorite in the first place? Probably because he’s big and better known than his opponent from his tenure in PRIDE—in other words, he’s pricing is justified by public perception and not any intrinsic superiority over his opponent. I’m not saying that Thompson can’t win, just that this fight is more of a “coin flip”. If you’re laying -200 on one side of a coin flip, you’re not very smart but taking +181 on that proposition—with a theoretical breakeven of right around 36% is a very good move indeed.
BET BRETT ROGERS +181 OVER JAMES THOMPSON @ ELITE XC MMA 2/16/08 (lines from Pinnacle)
If you’re not able to watch the event live you can follow the round by round coverage online at www.prophetfighting.com. The broadcast begins at 10 PM Eastern Standard Time and we’ll pick up the round by round coverage at that time. Check out Bodog and Bookmaker for the latest odds for this card.
Check out part one of this weeks MMA picks at MMA Betting: EliteXC Preview and Picks.
Click here for my final thoughts on the Kimbo vs Tank matchup.
Post your comments and picks below. See picks competition details here. See handicappers records and competition standings on this page.
Get the latest MMA betting odds at Bodog Sportsbook
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10 comments | Add One
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1 ProphetFighting » More EliteXC MMA betting advice at BetWWX - 02/15/2008 at 9:06 am
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2 MMA Betting: EliteXC Preview and Picks | Sports Betting Tips and Betting Advice - 02/15/2008 at 6:10 pm
[...] Click here for part 2 of my preview. If you’re not able to watch the event live you can follow the round by round coverage online at http://www.prophetfighting.com. The broadcast begins at 10 PM Eastern Standard Time and we’ll pick up the round by round coverage at that time. [...]
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3 Jim Murphy - 02/15/2008 at 9:33 pm
Check out the picture of Rogers and Thompson on the Showtime website–obviously the way a picture is “posed” can have a lot to do with this but based on the photo Rogers actually looks *taller* than Thompson. In any case, it sure doesn’t look like Thompson will be able to physically intimidate him making the play on Rogers even stronger. A lot of fairly sharp MMA types I know are big on Rogers–while that endorsement alone isn’t worth much I still like the value in a “prospect” at a nice dog price over a guy in Thompson where you know what you’re getting and it ain’t necessarily good…
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4 Jim Murphy - 02/15/2008 at 9:34 pm
BTW, here’s the Showtime link…scroll down to the big picture slideshow at the bottom and click on picture #7 for the Thompson/Rogers face off…
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5 Robo - 02/15/2008 at 11:18 pm
Latest on Thompson:
“I have been training hard with Randy Couture. I am more than ready for Saturday night.“I am more well-rounded than I have ever been. Being able to spar and train with people who are actually my weight class is a huge advantage.
“Rogers is dangerous, but he’s someone I should beat. I am looking forward to it. I’ve moved base, I’ve moved teams. I’ve accepted responsibility for my losses. Now I need to move forward.
“I am more refined as a fighter now, but I will still keep the basic instinct that I have in the cage. I am aggressive, that is just my nature.
“This is a new start, a new promotion and a new team. I am very excited about fighting on EliteXC. I will not disappoint.”
Heres that pick link to the pick Jim referred to http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/4052/img4350thompsonvsrogersvs7.jpg
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6 ProphetFighting » No EliteXC play by play tonight..results - 02/17/2008 at 5:06 am
[...] Rogers KO’d James Thompson @ 2:24 of the first round. That was a +181 winner for our BetWWX readers. Yves Edwards by KO over Edson Berton @ 4:56 of the first. That was our other BetWWX [...]
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7 Jim Murphy - 02/17/2008 at 8:22 am
Thompson tried to push the pace and overwhelm Rogers, but nothing doing. He showed some clear Couture influences in his fight style but the bottom line is still that he just can’t take a punch very well. IMO fighting like Couture only works if you’ve got the toughness, heart and solid chin to make the style work. Thompson would probably be better served watching some tapes of tall boxers like Lennox Lewis and Wlad Klitchiko and try to emulate them. He’s definitely not a brawler, so why not try to use his size and reach advantage to become a more “surgical” striker?
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8 BetWWX - 02/20/2008 at 9:17 am
ELITEXC RESULTS AND FINAL OODS
MAIN CARD
TANK ABBOTT VS. KIMBO SLICE (-450)
Kimbo Slice def. Tank Abbott via knockout (strikes) — Round 1, 0:43.RICCO RODRIGUEZ VS. ANTONIO SILVA (-305)
Antonio Silva def. Ricco Rodriguez via split decision (28-29, 30-27, 29-28).KYLE NOKE (-130) VS. SCOTT SMITH
Scott Smith def. Kyle Noke via KO (punch) — Round 1, 0:07.EDSON BERTO VS. YVES EDWARDS (-270)
Yves Edwards def. Edson Berto via KO (knee) — Round 1, 4:56.BRETT ROGERS (+175) VS. JAMES THOMPSON
Brett Rogers def. James Thompson via knockout (strikes) — Round 1, 2:24.UNDERCARD
JOHN DOYLE VS. RAFAEL FEIJO
Rafael Feijao def. John Doyle via TKO (strikes) — Round 1, 2:17.YOSMANY CABEZAS VS. JON KIRK
Yosmany Cabezas def. John Kirk via submission (rear-naked choke) — Round 2, 0:58.DAVE HERMAN VS. MARIO RINALDI
Dave Herman def. Mario Rinaldi via TKO (strikes) — Round 3, 0:33.ERIC BRADLEY VS. MIKEY GOMEZ
Eric Bradley def. Mikey Gomez via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27).JIRKA HLAVATY VS. MOYSES GABIN
Moyses Gabin def. Jirka Hlavaty via TKO (cut) —Round 1, 2:32 -
9 EliteXC Odds and Picks, Primetime on CBS featuring Kimbo Slice - 05/31/2008 at 1:21 am
[...] 263.5 . Again two solid and exciting stickers. Brett Rogers is undefeated, his last win coming at EliteXC Street Certified against James Thompson via knockout in the first round. Five of the six victories have been [...]
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10 gary griffitts - 06/15/2008 at 3:25 am
my concerns for elite is the reffing very inconsistant. in the fight between waterman and dont remember who the other was. but what seemed to me to be several elbows to the back of the head of waterman and the reff gave no warning or anything that is what caused the fight to end i think reffs need to be consistant in a sport that all ready is flaged we cant aford to apear fixed fake or unfair i hope we can make sure that this sport maintains its integrity and follows the example of other m.m.a sponsers. be clear on the dos and donts otherwise lets go back to everyone fights anyone just dont bite or gauge.
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