NCAA HOOPS: Miami-FL at Georgia Tech 1 PM Eastern

Jim Murphy - February 17th, 2008 .

PICK NCAABB: MIAMI-FL +4 (-110) BODOG OVER GEORGIA TECH (WIN)

One concept that would-be wise guys get too wound up about is “in season” revenge in college hoops. In fact, that’s really the only justification I can come up with for why Georgia Tech is a -4 favorite in this spot. Unfortunately, handicapping college basketball is much harder than just picking out these “in season” revenge spots and waiting to cash your tickets. More often than not, when one team begins to dominate the head to head matchups its not what the garden variety tout would call a “double/triple/quadruple revenge spot”—its more of an indication of a matchup problem, a coaching mismatch, or the simple fact that one team has the other team’s number.

The Yellow Jackets have been strong on their home floor in recent years, which could be further justification for the price. Upon further analysis, however, it becomes less impressive—while Tech is on a 17-8 SU run in Atlanta they’re only 4-5 SU (4-3 ATS) this season. Miami’s 10-5 ATS mark this season combined with a 6-3 ATS record on the road (6-5 SU) interests me more. Examining the Yellow Jackets home performance this season considering who’ve they’ve beaten and how badly is also instructive—they’re a classic example of a home court “bully”. But while they’ll blow the Tennessee Tech’s and Centenary’s of the world out of the gym, they’re life and death with more evenly matched opponents.

And what of the vaunted “in season revenge” concept? This is the fifth spot this season where Tech is in a position to avenge an earlier road loss, and they’re only 1-3 SU/ATS in the previous four. Miami swept this series SU/ATS last year and have covered 4 of the L5. Tech looked awful in double digit road losses at UConn and Clemson last week. Miami admittedly has had their own ups and downs this year but are off a nice road win at Virginia Tech and will come into this game well rested having last played over a week ago, while the Jackets were last in action on Thursday night.

Looking at the statistics, Miami plays better defense and rebounds the ball better than Tech. With my numbers indicating a SU Hurricane win and considering their recent domination of the series getting points in this spot looks like a gift.

PLAY MIAMI-FL +4 OVER GEORGIA TECH

Pick: MIAMI-FL +4

Scores: Miami (FL) 64 Georgia Tech 63

Result: WIN

Odds: 1.91 (-110)

Sportsbook: Bodog

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