UFC 91 Predictions and Picks

Robert K - November 12th, 2008 .

Its being hyped as the biggest fight in UFC history. UFC 91 is finally upon us and our expert UFC handicapper Robert Kendra brings you his predictions.

Its been a long time since I have been this excited about a MMA fight. 2008 has been lacking in mega fights, with the UFC for the most part offering us sub-par matchmaking this year, the end of 2008 and early 2009 look very promising indeed.

My UFC 91 picks and best bets are available after the jump.

Head over to Betus.com to bet on UFC 91. They’ve got lines up for the entire fight card, inducing all under card match-ups. Make sue to check out their MMA lines page for the most up to date fight odds.

Main Event : Brock Lesnar vs Randy Couture (+100)

I don’t think there was anyone who could have guessed a few months ago that these two would face each other for the UFC heavyweight belt. It was only two moths ago that Randy Couture (16-8) was being criticized by UFC president Dana White while being under litigation by Zuffa. Brock Lesnar (2-1) was a MMA noob with only one MMA win to his name. Not even ranked inside most pundits top ten heavyweight lists, he was just beginner with too little experience to be a real championship contender.

Things have changed drastically in a very short period of time atop the UFC heavyweight division.

With Couture making yet another UFC comeback at 45 and Lesnar coming off a absolutely dominating performance at UFC 87 this match-up does look like the most exciting fight available at heavyweight.

It’s the unknowns that make this main event so interesting. First on the list is Randy Couture’s 12 month MMA lay off. Spending a substantial amount of time on the sidelines is thought to have a negative impact on most athletes especially fighters. However in Randy’s case, it’s a not clear cut issue. He’s one of the most professional and dedicated individuals in the sport today. He looks in great physical shape. He trains with the likes of Wanderlei Silva, Forrest Griffin, Tyson Griffin and Ronaldo Jacare Souza.  Perhaps the strongest camp/team in MMA. Being in his mid 40’s maybe a longer time in between fights could be an advantage.

Second on the list is size. I’ve never seen a man so big move so fast.

In the past the smaller heavyweights had the distinct advantage of speed however with Brock Lesnar it’s a totally different story. He is so quick and big that the only way to deter him from using his speed is if he is faced with a dangerous striker. He’ll just steam roll trough wrestlers and pure grapplers.

That will be the key to fight, Couture striking. Couture will want keep the fight on his feet. Occasionally clinching with Lesnar and going for a take down.

Third on the list of unknowns is experience. This will be Lesnar’s fourth professional MMA fight, third in the UFC and first title fight. He’ll face one of the worlds most experienced currently active MMA fighters in Randy Couture who holds 24 professional MMA fights and total of 15 UFC title fights.

Lesnar looked overzealous in his debut, maybe even overconfident. He didn’t handle the occasion well. He looked as if he was too keen to impress.  Against Herring his attitude changed, he looked composed but still very confident maybe even arrogant.

He cant afforded be reckless or arrogant as he was against his past two opponents. But he has every reason to confident. I doubt Couture will be able to avoid the ferocious take downs of Lesnar. Off his back Couture’s options are limited. Its rare to see his him escape from the bottom. Couture’s striking is solid but not spectacular. Nothing that should worry Lesnar too much. This is simply a bad match-up for the UFC veteran. Lesnar is the deserving favorite, he should control the fight from beginning to end. A TKO stoppage is not out of the question. (Lesnar round 3 TKO)

Note: Betus.com and Sportsbook.com currently have the best lines available for this fight.

Kenny Florian vs. Joe Stevenson (+145)

Two TUF finalists battle in this number one title contender eliminator. This fight should clear things up in the Lightweight division with Sean Sherk likely to face the winner which should determine the official number one contender position.

Kenny Florian (10-3) is coming of another impressive performance this time against rising star Roger Huerta at UFC 87, though his performance wasn’t without criticism with some fans angered by Florian passive approach.

TUF 2 winner Joe Stevenson (28-9) had a decisive UFC return winning via guillotine choke at UFC 86. The wresting standout rebounded impressively after his UFC 80 loss to lightweight champion B.J. Penn.

Both fighters are extremely skilled on the ground however Florian has a clear advantage in the stand-up. Despite Florian’s ground credentials he’ll want to keep this fight standing. He has shown weakness in stuffing take downs with Sean Sherk in particular having a lot of success against him. Joe Stevenson wrestling will pose a huge threat to Florian who’s striking will be greatly compromised by the constant threat of a take down. An upset is a distinct possibility. At +140 Stevenson is a value bet. (Stevenson Decision)

Amir Sadollah vs. Nick Catone

The UFC announced  Tuesday that TUF 7 winner Amir Sadollah suffered a leg infection and is a very late withdrawal for his fight with Nick Catone. The UFC is looking for last minute replacement, its unclear whether the undefeated Catone will remain on the main card. Updates to follow.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Josh Hendricks

The former number one heavyweight contender Gabriel Gonzaga (10-3) is on the comeback trail. He will look to make it two victories in a row on Saturday when he face’s UFC debutant Josh Hendricks. Henricks holds a overall MMA record of 18 wins and 4 losses. He is grappler with a decent jiu-jisu game. On paper this looks like a complete mismatch and in reality it is. Gonzaga one the worlds elite heavyweight grapplers. His striking is more than adequate and his kicks are devastating. (Gonzaga round one submission) Be vary of betting against unknown quantities like Hendricks.

Demian Maia vs. Nate Quarry (+175)

Demian Maia is one of the best grapplers in the world. He holds a 8-0 MMA record with 3 victories inside the Octagon.  He is coming off a another submission victory, this time against long time middleweight contender Jason MacDonald. Maia’s round three rear naked choke earned him submission of the night honors at UFC 87, the third consecutive time he has been picked for the award.

Nate Quarry (10-2) is on a two fight winning streak. His loses have come to only to men Rich Franklin at UFC 56 and Gustavo Machado back in 2003. He holds victories over Kalib Starnes, Pete Sell and Shonie Carter. He is not the most technical or dynamic sticker but will pose a problem to Maia non the less.

While Maia ground game may be world class, his stand-up is still very rudimentary. Having said that if Maia can avoid to much punishment standing I cant see Quarry surviving for more than a round or two rounds on the ground with the Brazilian. (Maia submission round 2)

Preliminary card (Picks in bold)

Dustin Hazelett vs. Tamdan McCrory

Jorge Gurgel vs. Aaron Riley

Jeremy Stephens vs. Rafael dos Anjos

Mark Bocek vs.  Alvin Robinson

Matt Brown vs. Ryan Thomas

That concludes our UFC 91 preview. Check out Sherdog and the Savage Science for live play by play of the event.

 

To Top

 

Leave a Comment

Name: E-Mail : Website : Comments :