UFC 92 Predictions and Analysis
Andre Sanchez - December 24th, 2008 .Holding the best fight card at end of year is a long standing Japanese tradition that has been successfully adapted by the UFC in recent years. The tradition continues at UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008. The name says it all. It is the premier event of 2008. Our resident MMA handicapper Andre Sanchez brings you his expert UFC 92 predictions and betting advice.
The card is packed with elite heavyweight and light heavyweight talent. Two UFC titles are on the lines as well as the third battle in one of the most important MMA rivalry’s to date.
Note: Next to each fighters name we have listed their betting odds. For those new to MMA betting here is a quick run down of how these lines work. Its very straight forward. Every plus number represents how much you win, for every $100 wagered, every minus number represents how much you need to wager to win $100. As always head over to our recommend UFC sports books Betus.com and Sportsbook.com to bet on this event.
Forrest Griffin (-125) vs. Rashad Evans (+105)
Forrest Griffin (16-4) is coming of two spectacular upsets victories to the two past top ranked lightweight fighters in Marco Shogun Rua and Rampage Jackson. These victories have propelled Griffin to a whole new level in the UFC. Not only is largely responsible for rescuing the organization from the brink of bankruptcy, Griffin has now become the UFC’s poster boy of choice. His meteoric rise to the light heavyweight championship has come as a complete surprise to the fans, pundits and odds makers. He has always been talented and extremely dedicated however I don’t anyone in the fight game could have predicated these types of results.
Rashad Evans (12-0-1) has slowly but surely worked his way up the light heavyweight division every since his Ultimate Fighter 2 victory. His impressive records includes victories over Stephan Bonnar, Michael Bisping and Chuck Liddell. His only blemish being a controversial draw with former UFC star Tito Ortiz.
It hasn’t been an easy path for the TUF 2 winner. He struggled against middle of the road competition early in his UFC career. Split decision victories over Brad Imes and Sam Hoger and a close battle with Stephan Bonnar failed to inspire fans and he was quickly branded as a boring fighter. Since then specular KO victories over Jason Lambert, Sean Salmon and Chuck Liddell have gone a long way to change his image. His striking has improved considerably over the past 12 months but he remains a relatively one dimensional fighter.
Evans game closely resembles that of Tito Ortiz. Both fighter stand-up is lacking however for the most part they make up for it in their wresting and conditioning. Their game is tested when faced with elite strikers or well rounded technicians like Lyoto Machida. Griffin may be a solid striker but his stand-up is far from world class. I see him struggling once the fight hit’s the ground. I don’t think he’ll be able to avoid Rashad’s take downs nor I think that he‘ll be threat standing. Pick: Evans via decision.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (-325) vs. Frank Mir (+250)
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-4-1) aka “Big Nog” is a living legend in the MMA community. His record has very few equals. In a total of 37 professional MMA bouts, he has only been defeated 4 times, two of those loses have been revenged. He is first and only fighter to have captured a Pride and UFC belt. He has never been knocked out or submitted and on top of it all he still only 32 years old.
Nogueira may be world renowned for his outstanding ground game he truly is a complete fighter. His is boxing technique is exceptional. He is the ultimate technician, his game plans are masterful, his cardio and condoning has a few equals in the heavyweight division.
Frank Mir (11-3) returns to UFC championship contention after battling injuries and poor form for almost 3 years. Thanks to a spectacular heel hook over Brock Lesnar, the ground specialist is back in Dana Whte’s good books and fighting for interim championship. The two big questions marks hanging over his head remain his striking and conditioning. Both will be tested on Saturday.
Unlike the Brazilian, Mir has never been known as a well rounded fighter. This will be the first time in a long time that Mir will face a solid sticker with a exceptional ground game. Nogueira holds the edge in just about every department: striking, BJJ, conditioning and experience. I cant see him be beaten. Pick: Nogueira KO Round 3.
Quinton Jackson (+105) vs. Wanderlei Silva (-115)
This the fight of the night and for many the fight of 2008. If you’re long time fan MMA you’ll be familiar with this bitter and heated rivalry. These men truly hate each other.
Its been a year of highs and lows for Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. After successfully depending his title in a mega fight with Dan Henderson, Jackson looked unstoppable. There were very few legitimate contenders left after Forrest Griffin spoiled Jackson’s rematch with Shogun Rua. A win over Griffin looked like a formality. Few would have guessed that it would be Griffin to stop the then number one ranked light heavyweight. Even less expected was the complete mental break down of Jackson that followed the defeat. Only 6 months on and Jackson gets his chance at redemption.
The man standing in his way is legendary Wanderlei Silva. “The Axe Murderer” holds a tremendous physiological edge going after twice knocking out Jackson in their previous two fights. Both men however have changed dramatically since the then.
Jackson has grown in leaps and bounds. His striking in particular has improved tremendously. He is a complete package. He can take to the ground and yet is major threat standing. His legs remain an issue however. He had lot of trouble with Griffins legs kicks, its what cost him his title. It will less of issue in this bout, however it’s a major problem he’ll have to address in the 12 months.
Jackson’s BJJ is also lacking. Wanderlei has been focusing on his ground game since the Jardine fight, I wouldn’t t be surprised if he takes Rampage to the ground and tries to ride out a decision. This is a tough one but I give the slight edge to Silva. Pick: Wanderlei Silva Decision. My best for the night is Wanderlei at -115 available at Sportsbook.com.
C.B. Dollaway (-150) vs. Mike Massenzio (+120)
C.B Dollaway fresh of his first UFC victory faces former IFL fighter Mike Massenzio. With only four UFC fights between them its a surprise to see this match-up make it to the main card.
Both men have made the MMA transition easily and have made it to the UFC early in their careers. Dollaway made his name in the Ultimate Fighter 7 making it all the way to final before once again losing to Amir Sodollah.
Mike Massenzio looked ultra impressive in his debut submitting Drew McFedries early in the first round . He will have an edge in the stand-up. I also give him a conditioning advantage and hence see him outlasting Dollaway.
Cheick Kongo (-350) vs. Mustafa Al Turk (+275)
Cheick Kongo (12-4-1) made a spectacular return to form at UFC 87, destroying UFC newcomer Dan Evensen in round one. A shot at a championship still seems far of for Kongo as he is once again matched up with a UFC newcomer.
Mustafa Al Turk (6-3) fights out of the London Shoot camp is a strong grappler with powerful hands. This is a classic pure grappler vs pure striker match-up.
Kongo has had a lot of trouble with grabbles in the past but has looked much more composed in recent times. His takedown defence has come a long way and he simply isn’t scared of the ground game as he once was. I cant see an upset here. Kongo via K.O.
Preliminary card – Quick Picks
* The very experienced Yushin Okami over a still relatively one dimensional Dean Lister in a close fought decision.
* Improving European striker Antoni Hardonk over Mark Burch via early knockout.
* Standout wrestler Matt Hamill over Reese Andy via referee stoppage (TKO).
* Inconsistent Pride veteran Ryo Chonan over Brad Blackburn via a unanimous decision.
* UFC newcomer Dan Evensen over Patrick Barry via a late knockout.
