San Diego Chargers vs Indianapolis Colts Predictions and Picks
J.D Driscoll - January 3rd, 2009 .The Playoffs are finally here. Our expert NFL handicapper J.D Driscoll brings you his predictions and picks for the Chargers vs Colts.
The fact that the San Diego Chargers are even in the postseason is somewhat miraculous. On top of that odds makers have them as only as the slight underdogs. The Colts are the -1 favorite at both Betus.com and Sportsbook.com.
Left for dead after eight games with a 3-5 record, the Chargers went 1-3 November to enter the last month of the season with a 4-8 record. Thanks to a 4 game December winning streak and a collapse by the Denver Broncos here they are, champions of the lowly AFC West with an 8-8 record.
If you’re thinking that it’s not often that 8-8 teams make the playoffs or win division titles you’d be right. The Chargers are the first team to win a divisional title with an 8-8 record in 23 years—it was last done in 1985 by the Cleveland Browns. Overall, they’re the ninth team in league history to make the playoffs with an 8-8 record. They also became the first team in NFL history to qualify for postseason play after starting the season 4-8.
Now that they’ve made the postseason, unfortunately, historical precedent is decidedly against them: of the aforementioned eight teams with 8-8 records to make the playoffs only two managed to win a postseason game. We haven’t seen much to suggest that San Diego can become the third team to win a playoff game with an 8-8 record. While you have to give them considerable credit for not giving up on the season, the reality is that their December schedule should have been gift wrapped with a bow around it. They started the month playing Oakland at home and Kansas City on the road—two teams with a combined 5-22 record entering their respective games against the Chargers. They then won at Tampa Bay before dominating Denver in the final game of the season. The Bucs and Broncos enjoyed the dubious distinction of suffering a couple of the worst “down the stretch” collapses in NFL history and combined for a 1-7 record in December.
In other words, San Diego was fortunate to catch bad teams and decent teams playing bad football at the right time of the year to make their run to the postseason. Their scheduling luck runs out this weekend against the Indianapolis Colts, who have won nine straight games and haven’t tasted defeat since losing to the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night, October 27. The mainstream sports media is scraping trying to find reasons that Indy loses this one and in particular focusing on their rushing game (or lack thereof). The problem is that they’ve never really had a decent rushing game, and all they’ve done despite this liability is post the best record in the league since 1999 and become the first team in NFL history to win 12 games or more in five consecutive seasons.
And with this game a “pick”, all Indy needs to do is win outright. This is where us sports handicapping types are supposed to throw in a bunch of trends, angles, etc. to justify our position but in this game there’s no need for that. All you need to know is that to cash the bet we just need Peyton Manning and the Colts to win outright against the #31 ranked passing defense in the NFL. On the other hand and despite a whole slew of injuries, Indianapolis was a respectable 11th in overall defense. With all due respect to the considerable talents of Phillip Rivers, we’ve got one of the most dependably productive QB’s in NFL history and the better defense working for us and all we need is the outright win. Looks like a no brainer from here.
INDIANAPOLIS PICK OVER SAN DIEGO
