UFC 95 Predictions and Picks
Robert K - February 19th, 2009 .At first glance UFC 95: Sanchez vs. Stevenson may appear to be a letdown but for the betting inclined its one of the years biggest money making propositions. Our expert MMA handicapper Robert Kendra brings you four rock solid UFC 95 picks that will leave your bookie begging for mercy.
First let me tell you that this is one of the most miss priced UFC events in years. There are at least four bouts that have been totally misjudged by the odds makers. On average there no more than one or two solid bets per UFC event. Four recommend plays is a rarity for me . If you don’t have an account already I suggest heading over to Betus.com sportsbook to take advantage of the loose lines on offer this weekend. I’ve teased you enough, my UFC 95 bets and fight predictions are listed after the jump.
Diego Sanchez -290 vs. Joe Stevenson +230
This is a match-up between two solid lightweights that have their backs against wall. The winner becomes an instant top five contender while the loser will have to reassess their UFC career.
Sanchez was one of the UFC’s poster boys when he was on his 19-0 run. He looked unstoppable until he met his nemesis Josh Koscheck. Another decision loss followed before the former TUF winner was relegated to the preliminary card. Despite recent results Sanchez is entering the prime of his career. Two tough losses against the absolute elite of the welterweight divisions should serve him well in this vital match-up. Once again he is facing an outstanding wrestler with limited striking abilities. Stevenson has underperformed when faced with truly world class talent. The same can be said of Sanchez however he has never been outclassed nor dominated the way Stevenson has been. “The Nightmare” should dominate from beginning to end on route a unanimous decision victory.
Nate Marquardt -300 vs. Wilson Gouveia +200
Nate Marquardt and Wilson Gouveia battle it out in a very thin middleweight division. The victor will secure high standing UFC’s middleweight rankings however a title shot will remain out of reach for either man. Gouveia has looked very impressive since moving down form the very competitive light heavyweight division. He holds a solid 6-2 UFC record with his only two loses coming to the talented GoranReljic and experienced striker Keith Jardine. Marquardt is one of the most savvy and experienced middleweights in the UFC. His only two loses in the past 6 years have come to the two men that will battle it out for the title at UFC 97,Thales Leites (Split Decision) and Anderson Silva.
At +200 the odds-makers are overestimating the danger posed by the talented but inconsistent Gouveia. A disciplined Marquardt should dominate and eventually stop a poorly conditioned Gouveia in the third round. I like this pick a lot, its my recommended bet of the night.
Demian Maia -275 vs. Chael Sonnen +220
Maia is a ground genius. His BJJ is out of this world. However the rising Brazilian star has still plenty to prove. His cardio and his striking are elementary at best. Despite the many holes in his game, I cant see Sonnen exploiting any of them on Saturday. The savvy veteran wont an easy match-up but Maia will walk away the victor.
Josh Koscheck -450 vs. Paulo Thiago +325
Josh Koscheck is on the comeback trail and needs a victory on Saturday to remain a top contender in a very tough welterweight division. Brazilian Paulo Thiago makes his UFC debut on Saturday. Little is known of the undefeated submission specialist. This is Koscheck’s third fight in four months, he appears to be regaining top form and should be too experienced for the newcomer.
Dan Hardy +105 vs. Rory Markham -135
This is being billed as the top “Fight of the Night” contender as both guys like to keep it on their feet. Hardy is a blue belt under Eddie Bravo and has the ability to take to the ground. His is the better technical striker and should control Markham with precise and disciplined boxing.
UFC 95 Best Bets: Diego Sanchez at -290, Demian Maia at -275, Nate Marquardt -300 and Dan Hardy at +105. Check out the current UFC 95 betting odds before placing your bets.
