2009 Kentucky Derby Predictions and Picks
Jarrod Horak - April 30th, 2009 .The first Saturday in May has finally arrived. Its time to cash in as our racing expert Jarrod Horak gives you his 2009 Kentucky Derby predictions and picks.
Pioneerof The Nile (4-1) was my BC Juvenile selection and is my pick to win the 2009 Kentucky Derby. His sire Empire Maker was my Derby top, and his trainer Bob Baffert has won the Derby three times. Top notch rider Garrett Gomez is 4-4 with him, and he adapts to various pace scenarios. He has reeled off four straight graded wins and has looked the part since arriving in Louisville. He beat today’s morning line favorite I Want Revenge (Scratched) twice in California and wins this if able to transfer his synthetic form to conventional dirt.
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Desert Party (15-1) has been on my radar screen since Arlington debut last summer. He had a good winter in Dubai and is training with a purpose for this. Godolphin has failed to win our Derby numerous times, but this $2.1 million son of Street Cry has the talent to get them over the hump.
Hold Me Back (15-1) is a live longshot. He is training well for this and looked great in Lane’s End comeback. He regressed a bit in Blue Grass last time, and he should be rounding back to top effort. He needs pace help and must prove he can handle dirt.
I Want Revenge (Scratched) looked good defeating inferior horses in the Gotham and Wood, and he showed the ability to overcome trouble last time. He’s been looking well since arriving at Churchill. He has controversial trainer Jeff Mullins in his corner, and young jockey Joe Talamo exudes confidence. He owns running style versatility. Obvious contender will not offer value.
Chocolate Candy (20-1) did not look good when first arriving at Churchill, but he has been much improved this week and could surprise from off the pace. He has been part of trifecta in all six synthetic stakes starts, and look out if he handles the surface.
Friesan Fire (5-1) might try to play catch me if you can for Larry Jones. I am not thrilled about the layoff, and he has yet to race beyond a mile and a sixteenth, but he might last a long time if able to sneak away early.
Dunkirk (4-1) is the 2009 version of Big Brown, but there is more depth/talent in this renewal, and the promising Pletcher runner might get over bet. Note that he did not race as a juvenile and has yet to win a stakes race.
Regal Ransom (30-1) rode the speed bias to victory in Dubai last time. He has looked good in Churchill training sessions and looms a pace factor at the very least. I have a feeling the distance is slightly out of his reach.
Mr. Hot Stuff (30-1) is on the improve but remains eligible for an entry level spot. His brother (Colonel John) was my Derby top last year, and he owns enough of a late kick to land a share.
Flying Private (50-1) has multiple Derby winning trainer Wayne Lukas in his corner, and he had a breathing issue from the Arkansas Derby corrected. $700k purchase owns a strong pedigree and plenty of experience. He has only scored once but could hit the board at a big price.
General Quarters (20-1) has been much improved in morning activity at Churchill and handles any footing. He seems a cut below the best, and many will be rooting for veteran trainer Tom McCarthy.
Musket Man (20-1) landed an inner post and will probably have to be used a bit early to keep from getting shuffled back. I have always liked him, but he’s short on pedigree and has not looked good in his morning activity at Churchill.
West Side Bernie (30-1) has lost five straight and is stuck on the rail. He had a touch of colic after the Wood and has only had one Derby work. I would not be shocked if he snuck into the superfecta, but anything more would be a surprise.
Papa Clem (20-1) is not training well, and I thought the Arkansas Derby was one of the weaker Derby preps.
Advice (30-1) is back in two weeks after a graded synthetic score. He failed to fire versus lesser in lone conventional dirt try, and I cannot see him threatening these.
Summer Bird (50-1) ran a big race to land the show in the Arkansas Derby, but he has looked tired in his recent morning activity. He remains eligible for an entry level spot and is a likely bounce candidate.
Join In The Dance (50-1) owns speed for Pletcher. His lone win was accomplished in a sprint, and he figures to fade after six furlongs or so.
A few late defections allowed the inclusion of Atomic Rain (50-1) and Nowhere To Hide (50-1)…both seem up against it!
Mine That Bird (50-1) owns low speed ratings and appears over matched.
Best Bet
Now, how to bet the race. I suggest a win bet on Pioneerof The Nile, followed by an exacta box of Pioneerof The Nile, Desert Party, Hold Me Back, and Chocolate Candy.
Stay tuned for further coverage of the big race with odds form Las Vegas, best bet anaylsis from Robert Kendtra and trifecta picks from Andre Sanchez all to be posted later today.
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1 Kentucky Derby Predictions and Picks - 04/30/2009 at 7:27 am
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2 Derby News: The Boys Got Lucky : Thoroughbred Fever - Horseracing News - Thoroughbred Horseracing Information - 05/2/2009 at 5:11 am
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