2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders and Selections
Jarrod Horak - May 1st, 2009 .When analyzing the Kentucky Derby, I like to take an old school approach, looking for a strong pedigree, juvenile seasoning, route foundation, and a graded win or two. Top notch connections are a plus, and a sharp race within the past five weeks is preferred. A strong nine furlong graded try is a must for my win candidates as well.
I respect Dunkirk and Friesan Fire, but they do not fit my Derby criteria. The former has yet to win a stakes race and did not race as a juvenile, while the latter has not raced beyond a mile and a sixteenth and makes his first start in seven weeks. Both horses figure to take action, and I will let them beat me.
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Now, I will present the top three contenders for the 2009 Kentucky Derby based on my above criteria, and I’ll start with my top selection Pioneerof The Nile. Note: You may also want to check out my complete Kentucky Derby predictions post in which I handicap the entire field.
The good looking Zayat Stables colt has won four straight graded races under Garrett Gomez, and he was my Breeders’ Cup Juvenile pick, so I am not about to jump ship now. His synthetic speed ratings have not been sharp, but I love his ability to move early while adapting to various pace scenarios. He has reportedly looked rock solid since arriving in Louisville, and if he handles the dirt the rest are in big trouble. Bob Baffert has won the Derby three times, and his sire Empire Maker was my Derby and Belmont Stakes selection in 2003.
Hold Me Back in the same synthetic boat as Pioneerof The Nile. I was very impressed with his Lane’s End triumph, and he regressed as expected in the Blue Grass. I love the big race off the layoff followed by a solid effort. He is training well for this and needs some pace help. As an interesting side note, his conditioner Bill Mott trained Pioneerof The Nile as a juvenile, and jockey Kent Desormeaux won the Derby last year aboard Big Brown.
Update: I Want Revenge has been scratched. He won both of his dirt starts at Aqueduct impressively, and he continues to be on his toes in the morning. Lack of value is a negative. Note that Pioneerof The Nile beat him twice in California, and based on post draw, his nemesis figures to shadow him throughout. Many do not like his trainer Jeff Mullins or part-owner IEAH Stables, but do not hold that against the horse, and how can you not root for confident young rider Joe Talamo.
