UFC 83 Predictions and Picks

J.D Driscoll - April 17th, 2008 .

The UFC returns on Saturday 19^th of April with the long awaited rematch between Matt Serra and George St Pierre, J.D Driscoll brings you his latest UFC 83 predictions and picks. We’re heading to Montréal, Canada for the first time ever in UFC history. This will be the biggest crowd at any UFC event to date. In the main event Canada’s own George St Perrie faces the last man to defeat him, Matt Serra. The card will also feature several other Canadian MMA starts including Jason Mac Donald, Kalib Starnes, Mark Bocek, and Jonathan Goulet. Overall as the odds indicate this may not be the most stacked of UFC cards in recent times but betting wise this should be another value packed event. At UFC 82 we cleaned up the board going 4-0 for a 16 unit profit. While we cant promise those sorts of results every time, we see tons of value again in several of the match ups. Below are my complete UFC 83 predictions and picks with the latest available betting odds.

Latest Betting Lines: Matt Serra (+350) vs George St Pierre (-500)
For the most update MMA betting odds including for this match-up visit Bodoglife.com

Matt Serra is once again the big underdog going into this fight. However don’t let the odds fool you, Matt Serra on his day can defeat any top welterweights in the UFC. He has had a number of great performances against top welterweight and lightweight completion including going the distance with BJ Penn and Karo Parisian. His relaxed style and no pressure attitude will suite him well in this situation . “The worst thing that can happen for me when the match is over is that after two fights, we end up even.” He has a tremendous psychological advantage. Going into a match having submitted your opponent via striking is a unique situation to be in. He has nothing to prove. For the first time in his carer he can go into a fight with out any real pressure. Continue to read my complete prediction at the link below.

Complete preview of the Serra vs St Perrie match-up.

 

Latest Betting Lines: Rich Franklin (-350) vs. Travis Lutter (+250)
After disappointing performances in the previous bouts Rich Franklin (22-3-0) and Travis Lutter (9-4-0) return to the to octagon for a vital bout for both fighters UFC careers. The winner will most likely return to tile contention with the loser coming under significant pressure. Franklins stocks have risen somewhat after Anderson Silvas demolition of Dan Henderson at UFC 82 added some creditability to his own loses to him. Lutter is coming back from a long lay off after also losing to Anderson Silva. Franklin has the clear advantage on his feet while Lutter will win if he can utilize his superior jiu-jitsu and wrestling. Lutter will look to get the takedown and control Franklin from the top. If Lutter is unable to pull off a submission or TKO victory on the ground, he should be able grind out a decision. I don’t see Lutter being intimated by Frankin striking. Franklin’s ground skills should not be underestimated, he has never been submitted in his MMA career however he did come every close in his fight against Yushin Okami. This is also Lutter’s first fight in over a year, so ring rust could play a factor. Both fighters will have their own mental obstacles but I believe Franklin even more so. He was absolutely demolished by Silva two times. After being on top of the world for such a long time it really has to effect your approach and confidence going into your next fight. Franklin has a lot of experience and a fanatic record. But in reality, talent wise these two aren’t that far apart. This fight will most likely go to a decision and could very well go Lutters way. Lutter is my value bet for the night. MY PICK TRAVIS LUTTER AT +250 AVAILABLE AT BODOG, BETUS and BOOKMAKER.

Latest Line: Michael Bisping (-300) vs. Charles McCarthy(+260)
Bispings will make his middleweight debut at UFC 83. His only MMA loss to date coming to Rashad Evans at UFC 78. Piror to that he earned a very close and controversial decision victory of Matt Hamill, a decision most commentators believed should have gone Hamills way. At UFC 70 he he dominated Elvis Sinosic in the first round, was almost knocked out in the second but pulled out victory. His UFC record could have looked quite different had look not been on his side over past 12 months. Charles McCarthy has the potential to be a very good middleweight. He is only 27 but has a lacklustre 10-4 record,1-1 UFC. He is a ground fighter, all is MMA victories to date coming via submission. I bout he he’ll be able to submit the well rounded Bisping but he has the potential to pull out a decision if his cardio can stand-up to 3 round war. My pick is Charles McCarthy at +260 available at Bodog.

Nate Quarry (-295) vs. Kalib Starnes (+235)
This looks like the most even of all fights on main card. Sterns line has come in dramatically since it opened. If you have him around +300 you can pat yourself on the back, but to me at +235 the line looks right. Nate Quarry is coming off a win over Pete Sell after a long injury lay off. Starnes last bout was stopped due to a deep cut against Alan Belcher. Starns is the better ground fighter. Quarry is the better sticker. This should be a close fight with a small advantage going to Quarry. If Sterns was more of an underdog I would consider taking him. . I doubt the outcome of this fight will have any bearing in the middleweight division. I don’t think either of these have the tools to become title contenders. I’m staying clear of this match-up.

Mac Danzig (-550) vs. Mark Bocek (+350)
The odds makers have this match up spot on. Danzig is the real deal and will become one of the top 155 contenders in no time. He has all the tools and experience to go far, the only threat here may be the let down effect of having just won The Ultimate Fighter 6 and now having to fight someone that everyone thinks he should beat easily. I doubt that home advantage will have a lot of impact on a fighter like Danzing. Despite his age Danzing has 22 MMA bouts under his bet. The TUF winners have really not faltered in these tune up fights and as probably the most credentialed of them all I don’t expect Danzing to falter either. Bocek on the other hand should not be underestimated. He has been training with Henderson’s Team Quest. The line looks right, I’m staying clear.

For live play by play of the event check out Sherdog.com. To bet on UFC 83 visit Bodoglife.com

 

 

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1. 1 UFC 83 Odds and Betting Lines - 04/17/2008 at 6:33 pm

    

   [...] complete coverage of UFC 83 including his analysis of Serra vs Pierre 2 and his complete picks and predictions for the [...]

    

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