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Below are some of the prop bets available on the Superbowl. My approach to these wagers is to look for plays that are statistically based and are not dependent on the outcome of the game. For example, if you were to play a prop bet on Shaun Alexander to rush for 200+ yards you’re obviously taking a position based on a Seattle win. Conversely, if you were to bet that Alexander wouldn’t make 100 yards it would be predicated on a strong Pittsburgh performance. We look for opportunities that are derived from “typical” performances, either based on the regular season stats or on what has happened in an “average” NFL game or Superbowl.
WILL THERE BE A SAFETY SCORED?
There’s a lot of “will there/won’t there” type props and typically the negative position is the value play. The “public” player isn’t thinking in terms of value and would rather bet on events happening rather than “not” happening. Furthermore, they’re frequently attracted to the perceived high payout on betting the affirmative on unusual or infrequent events. Usually the YES side of these propositions doesn’t reflect the actual odds of the event occurring. By contrast, the NO side will often present a good wagering value based on the true statistical probability of the events occurrence.
The “Will there be a safety scored?” prop is a good example of this. The public would rather bet the “YES” at a payoff in the 8/1 range. During the 2005 season, NFL teams played 240 games and scored a total of 11 safeties. In other words, one safety was scored every 21.8 games. There have been 5 safeties scored in Superbowl history, the last by Bruce Smith in Superbowl XXV. You could make an argument that safeties are more likely in the Superbowl since teams are more likely to take risks and “go for broke”. Still, my statistical sources maintain that the odds of a safety occurring in any individual game are right around 20 to 1 against.
It’s always tough to lay a lot to win a little, but strictly from a statistical standpoint betting the NO on the “Will there be a safety scored” prop is one of the best values on the board. For what its worth, neither Seattle or Pittsburgh scored a safety during the 2005 season.
BET “NO” -1000 on “Will there be a safety scored?” (BetGameday)
WILL THERE BE OVERTIME?
This is another prop where you have to bet a lot to win a little, but the value is on the negative. So is history, since there’s never been a Superbowl decided in OT. With the short pointspread on this game and the tendency toward close games in recent years, you could make the case that an OT here is more likely than in any recent Superbowl. Nevertheless, that’s a tough thing to try and handicap. We’ll go with the numbers and take the negative.
BET “NO” -1000 on “Will there be overtime?” (BetGameday)
Five Dimes offers a combination of these two wagers:
BET NO SAFETY AND NO OT -528 (5 Dimes)
FIRST PLAY FROM LINE OF SCRIMMAGE:
In 5 combined playoff games, Pittsburgh and Seattle has started with a pass in four of them. The Seahawks “script” their first 15 offensive plays, making repetition of this more likely. Value is on the “pass play or sack” position at +120.
BET FIRST PLAY FROM SCRIMMAGE PASS PLAY OR SACK +120 (BetGameday)
TOTAL PUNTS FOR TOUCHBACK
Pittsburgh and Seattle have each averaged 1 punt for touchback in each of their playoff games. That makes for a projected total of 2 here, making the OVER 1’ the play and a good value at that.
BET OVER 1’ PUNTS FOR TOUCHBACK +230 (Bet Gameday)
FIRST TURNOVER A FUMBLE OR INTERCEPTION:
8 of 16 turnovers for and against for these two teams in the playoffs were fumbles, as were 43% in the regular season. At +149, theoretical breakeven is right around 39% so this is a slight value. If you can find a better price its obviously a better value, but we’ll take a shot given the run orientation of both offenses.
BET FIRST TURNOVER A FUMBLE +149 (5 Dimes)
SHAUN ALEXANDER TOTAL PASS RECEPTIONS:
Alexander caught a pass in 10 of 18 total games this season, including 1 of 2 playoff games. That means he failed to catch a pass in 40% of his games this year. The correct payout for a 40% proposition is +150, so the +240 we’re getting is a killer overlay.
SHAUN ALEXANDER UNDER ½ PASS RECEPTIONS +240 (Olympic)
DARRELL JACKSON PASS RECEPTIONS:
Jackson is somewhat undervalued due to the fact that he was injured for most of the year and only played in 8 total games.
D. JACKSON PASS RECEPTIONS OVER/UNDER 6
Jackson only failed to catch 6 passes once in his eight games played (vs. Tennessee on 12/18).
BET D. JACKSON OVER 6 RECEPTIONS +120 (Carib)
Jackson also scored a TD in 5 of his 8 games played
BET D. JACKSON TO SCORE A TD +160 (Carib)
JEROME BETTIS FIRST RUSHING ATTEMPT OV/UN 2’ YARDS
“The Bus” is a notoriously slow starter, so we’ll go with the UNDER. This prop would have won in 7 of his L10 games.
BET J. BETTIS FIRST RUSHING ATTEMPT UNDER 2’ YARDS (Olympic)
1st HALF RECEIVING YARDS D. JACKSON vs. H. WARD
This prop is under the “First Half Fireworks” entry at Olympic. Jackson averaging right around 90 yards per game, Ward around 60.
BET D. JACKSON -1/2 YARD -120 over H. WARD (Olympic)
MAURICE MORRIS O/U 10’ RUSHING YARDS
In the L7 games, Morris has had at least 7 carries for over 20 yards in six of them.
BET M. MORRIS OVER 10’ RUSHING YARDS +105 (Olympic)
