Kentucky Derby Predictions and Picks
Jarrod Horak - May 2nd, 2008 .The posts are drawn and the field of twenty is set for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, and now is the time to put the money where the mouth is with my Kentucky Derby predictions and picks.
Read Jarrod’s expert 2009 Kentucky Derby predictions and analysis by following the underlined link. Also don’t forget to check out his 2009 Kentucky Derby contenders article in which he gives you his top three selections. And finally visit this page page for the latest Kentucky Derby odds .
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COLONEL JOHN is perfectly drawn in the middle (post 10), and the consistent colt exits a visually impressive score in the Santa Anita Derby. The synthetic specialist sports a best of 62 local bullet, and the strong finisher is bred to run all day. He figures tough to deny if he handles conventional dirt, and that recent bullet suggests a big effort may be in the cards.
MONBA is an interesting price player for Todd Pletcher. His Blue Grass rebound made him 2-2 over Polytrack, but note that he won an entry level race at Churchill. Highly regarded runner was only a length behind Colonel John in Hollywood’s CashCall Futurity last year, and he is not without a chance at 15-1 on the line. COWBOY CAL is the other Pletcher, and he looks more like a turf/synthetic specialist.
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COURT VISION dons the hood and has a solid foundation and nice spacing. Sustained runner is working well and appears to be coming to a race. Gomez strings along, and the well bred Mott trainee rates a gander at 20-1.
Stablemate Z HUMOR removes the hood seeking a return to decent juvenile form. He is only 1-6 in the graded ranks, and that win was a dead-heat at Delta Downs.
SMOOTH AIR always runs his race. He might have some distance limitations based on his pedigree, but his veteran conditioner has been training him for stamina, and I can see him sitting in midpack and grinding out an underneath finish at 20-1.
VISIONAIRE always fires on conventional dirt, and the Michael Matz (Barbaro) trainee was an okay 5th in the synthetic Blue Grass last time. Late runner can sneak into the tri/super at 20-1.
Morning line favorite BIG BROWN drew post 20, and the unbeaten/untested colt looms an underlay in this spot. His best chance might be to gun for the lead and attempt a wire job, much like his Florida Derby romp from the outside post. With only three career starts, he lacks seasoning (remember Curlin last year), and it would be nice if he were battle tested at some point. Acid test time for the promising sort.
PYRO had a productive juvenile campaign and kicked off 2008 with a pair of good looking late running tallies at Fair Grounds. His final Derby prep was a Polytrack flop in Keeneland’s Blue Grass, and with 14 of his rivals exiting a 1-2-3 finish, his rebound task is daunting. Stablemate Z FORTUNE could have won the Arkansas Derby with a better post and more ground saved, but he was a strong second nonetheless. He was two lengths behind Pyro in February, and he might be the better of the Asmussen pair currently.
ADRIANO looked sensational in the Lane’s End. All of his success has been on turf and Polytrack, and he was nowhere in the Fountain of Youth, his lone dirt start. He has the talent, pedigree and connections, but he must overcome a six-week layoff along with the surface switch. Prado ended up here…mixed signals.
GAYEGO made the West Coast contingent look good with his Arkansas Derby triumph. Only two routes are a concern in regards to his ten furlong chances, and he is not bred to go this far. I respect his talent and connections but expect him to wilt in the lane.
DENIS OF CORK has raw talent and is working well at Churchill. He skipped a crucial prep (Rebel Stakes) because his owner was infatuated with his sheets pattern, and that decision could prove his undoing today. He exits a dull 5th in the Illinois Derby and meets sharper foes.
RECAPTURETHEGLORY has the colorful Lamarque/Roussel (Go Kandaly Go!) in his corner, but the Illinois Derby hero will not get an easy lead today.
Barclay Tagg (Funny Cide) has a pair, and TALE OF EKATI looks like the stronger of the duo. He bounced back from a pair of disappointing route tries with a solid win in the Wood Memorial, but the come home time was poor, and note that Edgar Prado abandons for Adriano. Ten furlongs seems a bit far. BIG TRUCK showed nothing in the Blue Grass, and the 50-1 shot needs a serious form reversal.
BOB BLACK JACK is a tough California-bred synthetic specialist. He is learning to ration his speed as distances increase, but the addition of blinkers could lead to aggressive early tactics, and he figures to receive a serious stamina test.
EIGHT BELLES is a filly on a four-race win streak, but she has never been past 8.5 furlongs and would be better suited to Friday’s Oaks. Trainer Larry Jones tasted some Triple Crown series success with Hard Spun last year.
Former Derby winning trainer Nick Zito (Go For Gin) starts two, with COOL COAL MAN the more fancied. Fountain of Youth winner was one of several high profile Blue Grass busts, and he draws the rail post for the 4th consecutive race. Kent D jumps ship (Big Brown), and the stalker seems up against it. ANAK NAKAL is off form and has not progressed from his juvenile campaign.
THE $100 PICK: $60 to win on Colonel John, $5 Exacta Box Colonel John/Monba ($10), $3 Exacta Box Colonel John/Court Vision ($6), $2 Exacta Box Colonel John/Adriano ($4), $1 Trifecta Key Colonel John over Monba, Court Vision, Smooth Air, Visionaire and Adriano ($20)
By Jarrod Horak racingonthenet.com Race results to be posted on the Kentucky Derby official website and this blog after the race. Visit daily for more predictions and free betting picks. Bet on the big race at Bodoglife.com
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Big Brown wins the Kentucky Derby.
1. BIG BROWN
2. EIGHT BELLES
3.DENIS OF CORK