Preakness Stakes Betting Favorites: Who Can Beat Big Brown

Jarrod Horak - May 16th, 2008 .

Jarrod Horak analyzes all the big 2008 Preakness Stakes Betting favorites. I was born and raised in Maryland and have followed the Preakness Stakes since 1980. My big wins included Aloma’s Ruler (1982), Deputed Testamony (1983), Tank’s Prospect (1985), Snow Chief (1986), Risen Star (1988), Hansel (1991), Pine Bluff (1992), Red Bullet (2000), and Point Given (2001).

The secret to my past success in the second jewel was playing quality horses exiting a disappointing effort in the Derby, or, I looked for a talented fresh face. Both of those angles come into play in the 2008 renewal of the Preakness Stakes, and below are the five horses to watch.

If your still looking for a place to bet on the event, we recommend going with Bodog and Bookmaker .

BIG BROWN deserves his role as overwhelming favorite in the second jewel of the Triple Crown. He is unbeaten and untested after four lifetime starts. I did not think he had the seasoning to win the Kentucky Derby (G1), but he proved me wrong in a big way. He owns a deadly combination of early/pressing speed and stamina, and he rates a realistic shot at Triple Crown glory. He could easily regress in Baltimore following a career top just two weeks ago, but he is fast enough to bounce and win. He figures to face a tougher test in the Belmont Stakes, where he will surely meet a core group of rested foes looking to squash his Triple Crown hopes.

BEHINDATTHEBAR was the second betting favorite after Big Brown however he has been scratched for the race after a foot injury. Gayego therefor takes his place as the second favorite.

GAYEGO is the lone Derby also-ran trying to rebound, and that angle has paid huge dividends for me over the years. Late Preakness entrant was a gem of consistency before much early trouble ended his Derby hopes. Arkansas Derby (G2) winner owns fine early/pressing speed but probably does not want to go a step farther than this. He is looking at a clear stalking trip from an outer post, and he will be waiting to pounce should Big Brown stub his toe.

ICABAD CRANE is the local hope, and that angle has produced some success over the years, including wins by Aloma’s Ruler and Deputed Testamony in the early 1980’s, and a place finish by Magic Weisner in 2002. The Graham Motion trainee is 3-3 on conventional dirt, with his lone career setback a show finish in Turfway’s Rushaway over Polytrack. He won the local prep for this in April and has the numbers to compete for a minor award. He clearly rates an exotic look at 30-1 on the line.

KENTUCKY BEAR has plenty of upside. Big Brown led his connections to the stakes ranks after a pair of facile tallies to kick off his career, but the connections of Kentucky Bear threw him to the wolves following a good looking debut maiden tally at the Gulf. After a predictable stalk and fade in the Fountain of Youth (G2), he was given a much needed breather. He returned to finish a rock solid 3rd in the Blue Grass (G1-polytrack), and luckily he did not have the earnings to make it into the Derby starting gate. He is training well for this and is as talented as many of his rivals. He reminds me a bit of Rock Hard Ten…raw talent without seasoning. Or. maybe he will pull off a Bernardini-like surprise.

Make sure to check out Jarrod’s complete Preakness Predictions and Picks . Check out this post at the National Post for further analysis of Big Browns odds .

 

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1. 1 Big Brown goes for Derby-Preakness double - 05/17/2008 at 5:49 am

    

   [...] Icabad Crane is an interesting price player for Graham Motion. His lone career setback was a synthetic 3rd in the Rushaway at Turfway. He exits a victory in the local nine furlong prep for this, and the lightly raced sort has plenty of upside. [...]

    

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