UFC 84 Predictions and Betting Picks

J.D Driscoll - May 23rd, 2008 .

J.D is back with his UFC 84 predictions and best bets. The card is stacked form top to bottom. Two other bouts on the main card could have quite easily headlined this card on their own. One of the UFC rising stars Lyoto Machida will face one of the UFC biggest names Tito Ortiz in his last fight in the UFC after he failed to come to terms with the organization. To top it all of we’ll see a battle between two of the UFC best stand-up fighters in the light heavy weight division former pride champion Wanderlei Silva takes on Keith Jardine. Below are latest odds for the card and JD’s complete UFC 84 predictions and picks.

For those of you who still looking to bet on UFC 84, I’d definitely recommend heading over to either Bodoglife.com or Bookmaker.com and opening an account.

Main Event Betting Lines: B.J. Penn (-250) vs. Sean Sherk (+200)

In the main event we have former champion Sean Sherk face the current lightweight title holder BJ Penn. Sherk returns after a 10 month layoff after testing positive for banned steroids. These two have really been going at each other in media over the last few months, making things particularly interesting.

Penn is considered the best lightweight by many pundits. BJ has a clear advantage in submissions and stand-up. Sherk is a great wrestler but Penn is very comfortable from his back has shown great take down defence. His cardio and dedication to the sport has often been put into question.

Sean Sherk is an excellent wrestler with world class cardio and a very good chin, he has never been submitted. His strategy will be very simple. Survive for the first two rounds and use his superior cardio to dictate the rest of the fight. His overall MMA record is more than impressive. He lost only twice in 35 bouts. The question is if Penn cant finish Sherk in the first 2 rounds,, will he simply gas or will he able to maintain his intensity for the duration of the fight. I don’t think cardio will be a problem for Penn this time even if he fails to finish Penn early in the fight. I think he will control and frustrate Sherk on his feet. Should the fight go beyond the second round I’m still confident that Penn can win even if the fight goes to the judges. However at -250 the line looks right. Prediction: BJ Penn Unanimous Decision. (No Bet)

Lyoto Machida (-200) vs. Tito Ortiz (+190)

It was not that long ago that Tito Ortiz was the top dog in the UFC but things change quickly in the fight game. After his loss to Chuck Liddell, Ortiz failed to bounce back in the way many expected him to. A controversial draw against Rashad Evans had many pundits questioning his dedication and desire to win. His appearance on the TV show "Celebrity Apprentice” and major fall out with UFC management in recent months have only added to that reputation.

None the less Ortiz remains a talent, his record speaks for itself. As he himself has pointed out recently, his only 2 loses in last 9 years have come to former champions Chuck Liddell and Randy Couture. Since 2000 his record stands at 15-3-1. His motivation and desire to win here is not in question. His desire isn’t simply to get past Machida, his other motivation is his dislike for Dana White . This is Tito’s last fight under his current UFC contract. White has made it public that he will not resign Ortiz. If he is able to get past the undefeated Machida Ortiz will no bout regain his status as one of the top light heavyweights in the world and will remain a major headache for UFC for years to come.

Machida is one of the UFC rising stars. He is undefeated and holds notable wins over some of MMA’s biggest names including Rameau Sokoudjou,B.J. Penn and Stephan Bonnar. He has both been praised and criticized for his unique fighting style. “The Dragon” holds a 12-0 record however 6 of list last 8 victories have been decisions. His far lass experienced and has not been in many big fights. This will be his biggest fight of his carer to date. His is yet to face any notable wrestlers in his career.

This fight will most likely go to a decision. I cant see either fighter stopping the other. As the +190 underdog Ortiz is a great bet to end Machida’s winning run in the UFC. My only concern Tito’s long layoff since the Evans fight. Prediction: Tito Ortiz Decision (Bet 1 Unit Tito Ortiz)

Wanderlei Silva (-180) vs. Keith Jardine (+155)

This bout has all the ingredients to be fight or knockout of the night. These guys who like to go toe to toe and have a reputation to never disappoint the fans, win or lose. Wanderlei Sila is coming of a loss to Chuck Liddell and is on 3 fight losing streak. Surprisingly "The Axe Murder" now holds a 1-3 record in the octagon. Silvia had a short stint in the UFC years ago at the beginning of his career losing to Vitor Belfort and Tito Ortiz. His three most recent loses have come to the biggest and best in MMA, Mirko Cro Cop, Dan Henderson and Chuck Liddell.

Jardine’s record stands at 13-3-1, 5-2 in the UFC. His most notable scalps include a split decision win over Chuck Liddell, a TKO victory over Forrest Griffin and a unanimous decision victories over Wilson Gouveia and Mike Whitehead. Jardine is in fact the older of the two but he is far less experienced and has not faced the level of competition Silvia has. Four of his last seven fights in the octagon have gone to decision. He has only been able to stop (KO or TKO) two fighters in his UFC career Forrest Griffin and Kerry Schall.

I don’t expect this fight to go the distance. Wanderlei should have learned a tremendous amount from the Liddell the fight. In fact Jardine has a very similar unorthodox counter striking style to Liddell. While Silvia has had most limited success in his career against strikers, he has faced bigger and better stickers with the likes of Mirko Cro Cop twice, Mark Hunt and Chuck Liddell. To only have been knocked out once and taking the other three to close decision is a very impressive feat for a small 205 pounder. He should have too much skill and experience for Jardine.

Prediction Wanderlei Silva TKO Round 2 (Bet 1 Unit Wanderlei Silva )

Kazuhiro Nakamura (+205) vs Rameau Sokoudjou (-245)

Sokoudjou has come back to earth to with a thud after his UFC debut loss to the undeafted Lyoto Machida. Nakamura is also coming off a loss to Lyoto Machida in his octagon debut . Nakamura is a pride veteran that has faced the worlds best. He really does not have any bad loses however more often than not he has come up short when he has faced the top tier. His record is 11-7. Sokoudjou is the deserving favourite and should return to form. The line looks right. Prediction: Sokoudjou by unanimous decision. (No bet)

Goran Reljic (+125) vs Wilson Gouveia (-155)

Goran Reljic is undefeated Croatian fighter that is making his UFC debut. He has been training with team Xtreme Couture in preparation for this fight and has in the past trained with Mirko Cro Cop in Croatia. He is yet to face any real competition. Wilson Gouveia is 4 on fight winning streak, his only UFC loss coming to Keith Jardine. This one is very hard to predict as we really know very little about Reljic. I’m staying clear. (No bet)

Check out the latest odds for UFC 84 here . Visit Sherdog.com and The Savage Science for live play by play of the event.

 

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2 comments | Add One

1. 1 Andre - 05/23/2008 at 9:03 pm

    

   Agree with your bets thanks for the write-up.

    

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2. 2 UFC 84 Odds and Betting Lines - 05/24/2008 at 11:15 am

    

   [...] out the homepage for J.D’s complete UFC 84 coverage, including his betting picks and predictions for the [...]

    

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