Belmont Stakes Predictions and Picks

Jarrod Horak - June 5th, 2008 .

Can Big Brown finish off the Triple Crown at Belmont Park, I will leave no stone unturned in answering that question with my complete 2008 Belmont Stakes predictions and betting picks.

Number 1 Big Brown (2-5) is now unbeaten and untested after five facile victories. It seemed as though he was too lightly raced to uncork a huge effort in the Derby, but he defied history with a visually impressive win from post 20. He figured to dominate an over matched field in the Preakness, and he won as Kent D pleased with plenty left in the tank. He burnt his back feet (ran down) in the Preakness, then developed a quarter crack (left front hoof) on May 23rd. After missing a few days of training, he returned to the Belmont oval with a series of gallops before delivering a 5f bullet in 1:00.03 on June 3rd. Hoof specialist Ian McKinlay will patch his quarter crack on Friday afternoon.

What does all this mean is regards to his winning chances in the Belmont Stakes? He still must navigate twelve furlongs versus a few better horses than he faced three weeks ago, and how many more top efforts does he have in him, especially after running throughout this demanding series? I think he has the best shot at completing his mission since Spectacular Bid in 1979, but even the Bid managed to lose the Belmont Stakes. In fact, the last 10 horses to win the Derby-Preakness have returned to lose the Belmont. Certainly no value here, so I will shop elsewhere for the winner.

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NUMBER 4 DENIS OF CORK (12-1) was curiously handled by his connections after kicking off his career with three straight tallies. His owner caught Derby fever and decided to follow Thoro-Gaph sheets patterns. He skipped a pivotal start in the Rebel and ran just one Derby prep (after Feb. 18th), and that was a below par effort in the Illinois Derby. He trained well in advance of the Kentucky Derby and came from 20th and last to land the show in an excellent performance considering he only had a single prep in twelve weeks.

He has been specifically pointed to the Belmont Stakes since and continues to work with a purpose. Improving sort appears to be sitting on a top and can ambush Big Brown and company in the lane. Note that his pilot Robby Albarado has won nine Grade 1 races at Belmont Park in his career, and he just missed in Test of Champions with Curlin last year. Also, his trainer David Carroll was the regular exercise rider of 1989 Belmont winner Easy Goer.

Number 5 Casino Drive (7-2) is the most important entrant in this field, and even if the undefeated colt does not beat Big Brown, his presence can lead to an upset. After an effortless Feb. maiden tally in Japan to kick off his career, he was sent to the US for a Belmont Stakes try. Note that the $950k purchase is out of dam Better Than Honour, and she has produced the last two Belmont Stakes winners (Jazil, Rags To Riches). First up was a great looking facile Peter Pan triumph, Belmont’s local prep for the Test of Champions. He has been preparing for this in unusual fashion from a US standpoint. He has walked briskly, jogged, and galloped slowly since the May 10th Peter Pan, and much of his exercise has been done in company with stablemates Spark Candle and Champagne Squall. He has the most upside and raw talent in the field, and he has the speed to go with Big Brown if and when the Derby-Preakness hero tries to burst away from the pack. How long he can stay with the Dutrow trainee may be the key ingredient in an upset, and I would not be shocked if he found himself in the winners’ circle when all is said and done. Note that his rider Edgar Prado has won this race twice (Sarava, Birdstone), and he foiled Triple Crown bids both times.

Number 10 Icabad Crane (20-1) was my Preakness Stakes long shot underneath key, and he made me proud with a rock solid show finish. He might have landed the place with a cleaner trip, and the improving sort is on par with or better than seven of his fellow long shot rivals. He rates a realistic shot at another minor placing.

Number 7 Tale of Ekati (20-1) is 2-2 at Belmont Park, and the two-time graded winner owns versatility. Don’t know how far he wants to run, but he is a gritty grinding type with quality connections (Coa/Tagg) in his corner. He worked too fast, way too slow, and just right in his three local training sessions for this.

Number 8 Anak Nakal (30-1) is out of Belmont Stakes winner Victory Gallop. He was a quality juvenile last year, but he has failed to hit the board in four graded tries this season. He was a better than expected 7th of 20 in the Derby, and Zito won this race in 2004 with Birdstone, spoiling the Triple Crown bid of Smarty Jones in the process. Late runner won his debut here, and I can see him sucking up for a minor award, especially if Big Brown romps.

Number 3 Macho Again (20-1) is certainly much improved this spring. He might take more action than he should based on his Preakness place finish, and this is his 3rd race in six weeks. The bubble will burst because a regression is likely.

Number 6 Da’ Tara (30-1) is on the improve for Zito. He could put some token pressure on Big Brown and company, but he is over his head in here. We might here more from him later this year, but he looms nothing more than an early pace player today.

Number 9 Ready’s Echo (30-1) is yet another late striding colt. Pletcher won this race last year with Rags To Riches, but this one is not in that class of animal at this stage. His figs are on the upswing, but he has a long way to go to reach this plateau…still eligible for an entry level spot.

Number 2 Guadalcanal (50-1) is an 0-5 maiden in an ambitious spot. He was nostrilized when last seen in a maiden turf marathon, and the late runner should never be a factor in here.

Here are my Belmont Stakes Picks. $30 to win on Denis of Cork, $5 exacta box Denis of Cork/Casino Drive. For the final $10, I will go back to the future and once again tab a straight Big Brown/Icabad Crane exacta.

Written by expert handicapper Jarrod Horak . For results and payouts visit the official Belmont Park website or visit this page at the end of the race. Also make sure to visit our homepage for more free racing picks and predictions. Bet on the big race at Bodoglife.com .

 

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3 comments | Add One

1. 1 Belmont Stakes Preview (June 5th): Casino Drive in final move - 06/6/2008 at 3:51 am

    

   [...] Drive has had an interesting road to the Belmont Stakes, and his unusual preparations continued with another easy four furlongs…somewhere in the [...]

    

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2. 2 2008 Belmont Stakes Odds: Casino Drive Remains Big Threat - 06/7/2008 at 12:14 am

    

   [...] publishing. Visit the official sites for most up to date lines. Make sure to check out my complete Belmont Stakes picks and predictions here [...]

    

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3. 3 Big Brown Odds to Win Belmont Stakes and Triple Crown - 06/7/2008 at 9:04 pm

    

   [...] when Big Brown bolts from the starting gate on this historic occasion. Also don’t forget to read Jarrod’s predictions here and his thoughts on the number two contender Denis of Cork [...]

    

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