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Below are some of the prop bets available on the Superbowl.  My approach to these wagers is to look for plays that are statistically based and are not dependent on the outcome of the game.  For example, if you were to play a prop bet on Shaun Alexander to rush for 200+ yards you’re obviously taking a position based on a Seattle win.  Conversely, if you were to bet that Alexander wouldn’t make 100 yards it would be predicated on a strong Pittsburgh performance.  We look for opportunities that are derived from “typical” performances, either based on the regular season stats or on what has happened in an “average” NFL game or Superbowl.

WILL THERE BE A SAFETY SCORED?

There’s a lot of “will there/won’t there” type props and typically the negative position is the value play.  The “public” player isn’t thinking in terms of value and would rather bet on events happening rather than “not” happening.  Furthermore, they’re frequently attracted to the perceived high payout on betting the affirmative on unusual or infrequent events.  Usually the YES side of these propositions doesn’t reflect the actual odds of the event occurring.  By contrast, the NO side will often present a good wagering value based on the true statistical probability of the events occurrence.

The “Will there be a safety scored?” prop is a good example of this.  The public would rather bet the “YES” at a payoff in the 8/1 range.  During the 2005 season, NFL teams played 240 games and scored a total of 11 safeties.   In other words, one safety was scored every 21.8 games.  There have been 5 safeties scored in Superbowl history, the last by Bruce Smith in Superbowl XXV.  You could make an argument that safeties are more likely in the Superbowl since teams are more likely to take risks and “go for broke”.  Still, my statistical sources maintain that the odds of a safety occurring in any individual game are right around 20 to 1 against.

It’s always tough to lay a lot to win a little, but strictly from a statistical standpoint betting the NO on the “Will there be a safety scored” prop is one of the best values on the board.  For what its worth, neither Seattle or Pittsburgh scored a safety during the 2005 season.

BET “NO” -1000 on “Will there be a safety scored?” (BetGameday)

WILL THERE BE OVERTIME?

This is another prop where you have to bet a lot to win a little, but the value is on the negative.  So is history, since there’s never been a Superbowl decided in OT.  With the short pointspread on this game and the tendency toward close games in recent years, you could make the case that an OT here is more likely than in any recent Superbowl.  Nevertheless, that’s a tough thing to try and handicap.  We’ll go with the numbers and take the negative.

BET “NO” -1000 on “Will there be overtime?” (BetGameday)

Five Dimes offers a combination of these two wagers:

BET NO SAFETY AND NO OT -528 (5 Dimes)

FIRST PLAY FROM LINE OF SCRIMMAGE:

In 5 combined playoff games, Pittsburgh and Seattle has started with a pass in four of them.  The Seahawks “script” their first 15 offensive plays, making repetition of this more likely.  Value is on the “pass play or sack” position at +120.

BET FIRST PLAY FROM SCRIMMAGE PASS PLAY OR SACK +120 (BetGameday)

TOTAL PUNTS FOR TOUCHBACK

Pittsburgh and Seattle have each averaged 1 punt for touchback in each of their playoff games.  That makes for a projected total of 2 here, making the OVER 1’ the play and a good value at that.

BET OVER 1’ PUNTS FOR TOUCHBACK +230 (Bet Gameday)

FIRST TURNOVER A FUMBLE OR INTERCEPTION:

8 of 16 turnovers for and against for these two teams in the playoffs were fumbles, as were 43% in the regular season.  At +149, theoretical breakeven is right around 39% so this is a slight value.  If you can find a better price its obviously a better value, but we’ll take a shot given the run orientation of both offenses.

BET FIRST TURNOVER A FUMBLE +149 (5 Dimes)

SHAUN ALEXANDER TOTAL PASS RECEPTIONS:

Alexander caught a pass in 10 of 18 total games this season, including 1 of 2 playoff games.  That means he failed to catch a pass in 40% of his games this year.  The correct payout for a 40% proposition is +150, so the +240 we’re getting is a killer overlay.

SHAUN ALEXANDER UNDER ½ PASS RECEPTIONS +240 (Olympic)

DARRELL JACKSON PASS RECEPTIONS:

Jackson is somewhat undervalued due to the fact that he was injured for most of the year and only played in 8 total games.

D. JACKSON PASS RECEPTIONS OVER/UNDER 6

Jackson only failed to catch 6 passes once in his eight games played (vs. Tennessee on 12/18).

BET D. JACKSON OVER 6 RECEPTIONS +120 (Carib)

Jackson also scored a TD in 5 of his 8 games played

BET D. JACKSON TO SCORE A TD +160 (Carib)

JEROME BETTIS FIRST RUSHING ATTEMPT OV/UN 2’ YARDS

“The Bus” is a notoriously slow starter, so we’ll go with the UNDER.  This prop would have won in 7 of his L10 games.

BET J. BETTIS FIRST RUSHING ATTEMPT UNDER 2’ YARDS (Olympic)

1st HALF RECEIVING YARDS  D. JACKSON vs. H. WARD

This prop is under the “First Half Fireworks” entry at Olympic.  Jackson averaging right around 90 yards per game, Ward around 60.

BET D. JACKSON -1/2 YARD -120 over H. WARD (Olympic)

MAURICE MORRIS O/U 10’ RUSHING YARDS

In the L7 games, Morris has had at least 7 carries for over 20 yards in six of them.

BET M. MORRIS OVER 10’ RUSHING YARDS +105 (Olympic)

The co feature two is an entrancing battle between Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine (14-6-1) and Thiago Silva (13-1). Once again two fighters coming off losses in desperate need for victory. Expect both to swing for the fences this Saturday. To access our UFC 102 picks simply sign up to our email newsletter.

Guys, i’m giving you the chance to sign up to our newsletter for free. Thats right, you’ll receive free predictions by “Robert K” one of the worlds greatest fight handicappers for an entire month. Simply email eo5544@gmail.com with the subject “PICKS” to sign up right now. Below is a sample of our work.

***

It has come to this—there is a very well known and respected offshore bookmaker taking action on professional wrestling. The British bookmaking firm Bet365.com took action on the WWF’s United Kingdom PPV in October, and is now offering futures odds on the 1/20/01 “Royal Rumble” pay-per-view. While some may view betting on pro wrestling as a sign of the apocalypse, I personally don’t have an issue with it. Now I know it’s not what purists consider a “real” sport—there’s that little business about the outcomes being predetermined—but so what? The outcomes of other events are predetermined—the Academy Awards and the Survivor TV show come to mind—and that hasn’t stopped bookmakers from taking action on them. So why not pro wrestling? Before a wrestling event there’s significantly fewer people who “know” the outcome than in the previous examples. Vince McMahon calls the shots, and he’s notorious for coming up with the unexpected (good or bad) so there’s always the possibility of an upset. It’s certainly less of a foregone conclusion than a lot of the Ferrari dominated Formula 1 races were this year.

I’m most excited about the opportunity to bet on WWF events, however, because I’m a legitimate authority on professional wrestling. I’ve been following the pseudo-sport since the days of Jack Brisco, Dory Funk, Jr. and Harley Race and I can actually say that I understand its somewhat convoluted logic. This knowledge, along with the application of fundamental handicapping principles, makes me very optimistic that I’ll be able to bet WWF wrestling as profitably as all of the other sports, entertainment events, etc. that I deal with. So now that we know we can bet on let, let’s discuss the event and get to work handicapping it for fun and profit!

THE ROYAL RUMBLE—A HISTORY:

The first Royal Rumble was held in 1988, and since the early 1990’s has become one of the WWF’s biggest and most significant annual PPV events. The first Royal Rumble was shown on the USA Network—sort of a “beta test” to see how it would go over. The concept proved very attractive to both the promotion and the audience, and so in 1989 it moved to PPV. Since 1993, the winner of the Royal Rumble has “officially” gone on to wrestle the current WWF champion for the title at Wrestlemania, the biggest PPV event of the year. Since the outcome of the event has such broad ramifications not only for wrestling fans, but for the bottom line of the WWF, the winner is chosen very carefully so as to provide the best possible matchup to headline the Wrestlemania PPV. This fact is going to be crucial in handicapping the event since it’s pretty clear who Vince McMahon and the WWF has no interest in seeing headline their most important show of the year.

Since the first “beta test” Royal Rumble (won by journeyman Hacksaw Jim Duggan), the event has been won by ten different men(including a tie with two winners in 1994). With the exception of Duggan’s victory in 1988, all of the winners have been among the top stars of the organization—clearly with the intention of setting the table for the best possible matchup at Wrestlemania.

***Email us right now. When you sign up to our exlusive newsletter you’ll receive our complete UFC 102 predictions the same day. Follow UFC 102 live at the Savage Science. ***

First head over to Bigoddsmike.com for the most up to date UFC 100 odds. I’m a regular contributor there so make sure to show them some love. A quick reminder if you’re looking for the best place to bet on this weeks fight action sign up with the good people at Sportsbook. Now onto my UFC 100 predictions.

UFC 100 Picks: Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir

Its a classic tale of skill vs. strength, David vs. Goliath if you will. The odds makers have made up their mind, its Lesnar’s fight to loose if the guys over at Betus or 5Dimes are to be trusted. At hefty -220 he’ll be hard to beat but there little value at those odds. Go with Mir if you’re a betting man. Sure Lesnar has come a long since their last bout but in my opinion Mir is the one that transformed his game. For the first time in a long time, Mir is looking hungry again.

Georges St-Pierre vs. Thiago Alves

St-Pierre has looked flawless since his loss to Matt Serra in 2007. He has overcome all challengers and has quickly become one the UFC’s favourite sons. However he’ll face a dangerous Thiago Alves this Saturday. Its  a tough match-up the Canadian, however one he should be able to overcome. It’ll be a close fight but my money is on St-Pierre.

Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping

Michael Bisping takes on Dan Henderson in what will most likely be a title fight elimination bout. The former Pride champion is on a mission to avenge his 2008 loss to Anderson Silva. Henderson has the edge in most areas, his experience however will be the deciding factor. Bisping wont be a pushover however Henderson should outlast the TUF 2 winner in a three round war.

Mark Coleman vs. Stephan Bonnar

This is must win bout for both of these guys. Coleman looked sluggish against a underdone Shogun while Bonnar is coming off an upset loss  to Jon Jones. Despite his age and less than stellar recent performances I’m sticking with “The Hammer”.

Well the next huge event everyone’s talking about is Affliction Trilogy. I’ll have a full write-up for this speculator card in due time but its looking really solid so far. Maybe its just me but I think they’ll have a much hard time marketing Fedor vs. Barnett to US fans. Emelianenko vs. Arlovski & Tim Sylvia sold themselves but the fight Barnett is one for the hardcore fans. Barnett represents a bigger challenge of course, like Fedor’s coach once said he is a thinking man fighter, a great tactician. I cant see Barnett being knocked out or submitted in the first or second. It will most likely turn into a five round war like Nogueira vs. Barnett 1 and 2 did.

Fedor’s name is well and truly skyrocketing but they’re running out of creditable opponents for him. Fedor vs. Overeem would make sense but I doubt it could take place in the US. A fight with Tito Ortiz would be huge but I don’t think the “Huntington Beach Bad Boy” is too keen to move to the heavyweight division at this stage of his career. Whatever the case may be it will be an uphill battle for Afflictions fourth show.

Note: For those still searching for a sportsbook for the event, what better place than Sportsbook.com? With some of the best MMA odds to choose from, you simply cant go wrong with these guys.

A year ago, who would have thought that “Sugar” Rashad Evans (18-0-1) would fight Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (32-0-1) for the light heavyweight title. Both men have come a long way since their UFC debuts. They have been criticized for the styles and antics yet both remain unbeaten.  Its something only a handful of fighters have been able to accomplish on their way toward the championship belt.

Brazilian Karate champion Machida remains the heavy favorite going into the bout. At -190 he’ll be hard to beat. Evans though could be a value play at +200. The latest UFC 98 betting odds are listed below. All lines accurate at the time of posting.

Odds for UFC 98

Lyoto Machida -200
Rashad Evans +170

Matt Hughes -270
Matt Serra +230

Frank Edgar +260
Sean Sherk -320

Dave Kaplan +125
George Roop -145

Kyle Bradley +290
Phillipe Nover -350

Brandon Wolff +365
Yoshiyuki Yoshida -460

Pat Barry -300
Tim Hague +220

Brock Larson +120
Chris Wilson -167

Drew Mcfedries -227
Xavier Foupa-Pokam +157

Andre Gusmao -118
Krzysztof Soszynski -118

Dont be an armchair quarterback. Its time to put your money where your mouth is, head over to Sportsbook and place your UFC 98 bets today!

Headlining the action will be the middleweight title bout between Anderson Silva and Brazilian Jujitsu standout Thales Leites. It is the most one sided match-up on the card according to the odds makers. At +350 (Bet $100 for a $350 profit) Leites will have his work cut out. On top of being one of the worlds most dangerous strikers , Silva is also a black belt in Brazilian jujitsu. The middleweight champion is available at prohibitive -550.

Rua vs. Liddell is an epic match-up. Both men were at one time considered the worlds best. For years fans could only dream that one day these two legends would meet inside the octagon. After years of waiting that day has finally arrived. Its a vital bout for Liddell in particular. He is nearing the end of a illustrious career and he is running out of second chances. Rua too has unperformed in his last two outings and needs an impressive performance to remain relevant in the worlds toughest division. This is a much close match-up with Liddell favored at -190, Rua is the underdog at +150.

Full UFC 97 odds are listed after the jump. Don’t forget to head over to Betus and Sportsbook to bet UFC 97. This event will be held outside the US so a quick reminder. Place your UFC 97 bets head of time to avoid timezone or PPV time issues.

Odds for UFC 97

Anderson Silva -525
Thales Leites +350

Chuck Liddell -175
Mauricio Rua +150

Antoni Hardonk +210
Cheick Kongo -270

Luis Cane -250
Steve Cantwell +210

David Loiseau -125
Ed Herman +110

David Bielkheden +200
Mark Bocek -260

Brian Stann +120
Krzysztof Soszynski -150

Ryo Chonan -189
T.J. Grant +170

Jason Macdonald -115
Nate Quarry -115

Denis Kang -350
Xavier Foupa-Pokam +300

Matt Wiman +120
Sam Stout -150

Also featured on the card is the heavyweight slug fest between Cheick Kongo and Antoni Hardonk as well as the promising light heavyweight showdown between Steve Cantwell and Luiz Cane. The preliminary card is more than stacked with the likes of Denis Kang, Jason MacDonald and David Loiseau set to kick things off.

This free Spike TV card isn’t as staked as some of the most recent UFC shows however rising stars like Brazilian Damian Maia and Junior Dos Santos make this another must watch event . The main event is a match-up between “The Ultimate Fighter” winners Diego “The Nightmare” Sanchez and Joe “Daddy” Stevenson. Both men are on the comeback trail. Sanchez is the clear betting favorite at -290 (Bet $290 for a $100 profit) with Stevenson the underdog at +230.

The co-main event sees the return of BJJ standout Demian Maia. The fast rising welterweight is favored to continue his unbeaten run when he faces former WEC contender Chael Sonnen. MMA veteran Sonnen makes his UFC comeback as a +220 underdog. Full UFC 95 betting odds are listed below. To bet UFC 95 head over to Sportsbook.com. Odds are also available for UFC 96 and UFC 97.

Odds for UFC 95

Diego Sanchez vs. Joe Stevenson

* Sanchez (-290)
* Stevenson (+230)

Nate Marquardt vs. Wilson Gouveia

* Marquardt (-300)
* Gouveia (+220)

Demian Maia vs. Chael Sonnen

* Maia (-275)
* Sonnen (+220)

Josh Koshcheck vs. Paulo Thiago

* Koscheck (-450)
* Thiago (+325)

Dan Hardy vs. Rory Markham

* Hardy (-135)
* Markham (+105)

Junior dos Santos vs. Stefan Struve

* Dos Santos N/A
* Struve N/A

The third co main event is the important middleweight match-up between Nate Marquardt and Wilson Gouveia. Most of the betting action has favored Marquardt. His line ballooned from -260 to -300 over the past week. Fellow Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt Gouveia is currently available at around the +220 mark.

Josh Koshcheck looks to return to title contention with a win over Paulo Thiago. A pick-em fight between UFC rookies Dan Hardy and Rory Markham rounds out the main-card.

The full main card lines have now been released by all the major sports books. Betting lines for the five under card bouts should be released on the Tuesday or Wednesday before the event. We’ll post lines from Las Vegas sports book, The Venetian, on the Thursday of the event.

Quick Recap of UFC 93

After two of the most epic cards in UFC history, the UFC started 2009 on a more subdued note.

UFC 93 turned out be a disappointment. Sure the two main events looked somewhat intriguing on paper however there really wasn’t much else to cheer about. All four main event fighters had big questions marks hanging over their heads but neither performed to the level that would warrant significant praise. Things went to script for Henderson vs. Franklin. I cant say that either man looked terrific on the night. Only a year or two ago this would have been one of the biggest fights of the year. Franklin was the undisputed UFC champion while Henderson had become the first man to capture both the Pride middleweight and welterweight belts. However the fight turned out be quite a dull affair. Henderson controlled proceedings just as I had predicted. He went on to collect a lackluster decision victory and a place on “The Ultimate Fighter 9″. Shogun Rua once again underperformed despite earning “Fight Of The Night” honors in his first UFC win.

Predictions For UFC 94

UFC 94 is an entirely different story. This card could go down as the greatest single UFC event to date. The entire card looks terrific but it’s the main event that sets this card apart. It’s a fight for the ages. Onto my UFC 94 predictions and picks.

Georges St-Pierre vs. B.J. Penn

There is not a lot to be said that hasn’t already been said about these two UFC legends. Both men are in their in their prime and at the top of their game. Their is a case to be made that the winner of this would should be ranked as the number one pound for pound fighter in the world.

St-Pierre enters the rematch as a rather heavy betting favorite. The current line has the depending champion at a hefty -170 at Betus.com sportsbook. More than any other UFC champion St-Pierre manages to improve with each UFC outing. Their is no better indicator than the odds. The last time these two champions met, B.J Penn was the betting favourite. However B.J Penn’s development over the past two years cant be ignored either. His boxing remains superb, his ground game is world class though his cardio hasn’t been tested in while. Penn’s conditioning is and always has been the big question mark hanging over his head.

Penn outclassed St-Pierre in the striking department in their first bout. That wont be the case the second time around. This is not the same GSP that faced Penn in 2006. It wont be the same fight either. St-Pierre’s wresting and heavy kicks should negate much of Penn’s boxing. Penn on the other hand is much better prepared and conditioned. This is the fight of his life and he wont take it lightly. Conditioning alone will not win this fight for GSP. His game plan, wrestling and dynamic striking will. Read my complete St-Pierre vs Penn preview.

Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva

The MMA media isn’t nearly as excited about this match-up as it should be. It is one of most significant light heavyweight bouts of 2009. The winner should receive the next title shot and will in all likelihood be the betting favorite over current champion Rashad Evans.

Machida is a “thinking man’s” fighter. He has been called elusive, some call him boring, for many however he’s simply the greatest MMA fighter on the planet. While his style may be controversial, his talent cant be questioned. He has wins over some the worlds best including B.J Penn, Tito Ortiz and Rich Franklin.

Silva is a legitimate light heavyweight contender. He has looked superb in his first 4 UFC fights. He has stopped all of his opponents inside the first two rounds. However his conditioning has been tested nor has his striking game. He has excelled against middle of the road competition however he lacks the experience to get past a world class fighter. Machida should out strike and outsmart Silva on-road to a decisive decision victory.

Stephan Bonnar vs. Jon Jones

UFC veteran Stephan Bonnar is looking to make it three wins in a row against rookie Jon Jones. Bonnar has looked near peak form in his last UFC appearances but he’ll have his hands full against Jones. “Bones” stared his professional MMA career less than a year ago. He is an unknown commodity but I wouldn’t be surprised if he is able to edge out a decision victory on Saturday.

Karo Parisyan vs. Dong Hyun Kim

Parisyan is coming off a unusually long lay off. Injury and personal problems prevented earlier comeback attempts. It remains unclear if he has overcome the multiple of issues that have plagued him over the past 12 months. He has been a dominant welterweight for most of his career. If he’s near his best, he should he able decision Hyun Kim.

Nate Diaz vs. Clay Guida

This match-up has “Fight Of The Night” written all over it. Both guys come to fight every single time. Nate Diaz, like his brother, is one of few fighters that entertain standing and on the ground. He has looked superb since winning “The Ultimate Fighter 5″ and is improving with each UFC outing. The odds makers cant split the two, and I cant either. However given Guida’s experience and world class conditioning I predict a close decision that will favor “The Carpenter”.

The opening line for the main event was posted over a month ago. To the surprise of many fans, BJ Penn opened up as quite a large underdog. His betting line in December stood around +175 (Bet $100 for a $175 profit.) However heavy betting action on the Hawaiian has since moved his line to +135. St-Pierre remains the favorite and is currently available at -165.

All odds from our friends at Betus and Sportsbook, check them out if you’re looking for a place to bet UFC 94. Lines for the preliminary card have yet to be released.

Here are the current UFC 94 betting odds as they stand at the time of posting.

Odds for UFC 94

Georges St. Pierre vs. BJ Penn

Betting Lines At Sportsbook.com

* St. Pierre -175
* Penn +135

Betting Lines At Betus.com

* St. Pierre -165
* Penn +135

Read further main event analysis at our UFC 94 predictions page and GSP vs. B.J Penn post.

Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva

* Machida -325
* Silva +250

Stephan Bonnar vs. Jon Jones

* Bonnar -170
* Jones +140

Nate Diaz vs. Clay Guida

* Diaz -125
* Guida -105

Karo Parisyan vs. Dong Hyun Kim

* Parisyan -295
* Hyun Kim +250

Akihiro Gono vs. Jon Fitch

* Gono +350
* Fitch -500

Manny Gamburyan vs. Thiago Tavares

* Gamburyan +105
* Tavares -125

Christian Wellisch vs. Jake O Brien

* Wellisch +200
* O Brien -240

Dan Cramer vs. Matt Arroyo

* Cramer +160
* Arroyo -200

Chris Wilson vs. John Howard

* Wilson -350
* Howard +275

The UFC returns to the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas for perhaps its biggest PPV in history. Defending UFC welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre meets UFC lightweight champion BJ Penn in a rematch three years in the making. Not only are these two men great ambassadors of the sport, they’re also both word champions and universally ranked as the top of their weight division.

The co-main event is an epic showdown between undefeated Brazilian light heavyweight contenders Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida and Thiago Silva. Whoever emerges victories will be no more than one or two fights away from a shot at the title.  Odds makers had lines available within days of the fights announcement. “The Dragon“ has been installed as the big betting favorite at -325 while Silva is a +250 underdog .

Also featured on the main card is the comeback of TUF 1 finalist Stephan Bonnar. He’ll face rising star Jon Jones. The UFC veteran is a slight favorite at -150 while UFC rookie Jones is available at +140.

Lines for the UFC 93 under card have yet to be posted however we’ll update this page with full odds as soon as they become available.

Clearly this card isn’t as stacked as the past two events however the two co-main events are very compelling. Shogun Rua makes his long awaited comeback against the legendary Mark Coleman while Rich Frankin looks to make his mark on the light heavyweight division when he faces Dan Henderson. For those looking to bet on this European card head over to our friends at Betus sportsbook. Lines are up for 4 out the 5 fight on the main card.

Rich Franklin +110 vs. Dan Henderson -140

This bout is at light heavyweight however it has major implications for the middleweight division too. The victor will more than likely face middleweight contender Michael Bisping and coach Team USA on the Ultimate Fighter 8.

Both Franklin and Henderson posses extremely impressive resumes. Both have faced some of the worlds best and have come out on top more often than not.

Rich Franklin (24-3) has quickly established himself as a threat in the light heavyweight division. Victories over Travis Lutter and Matt Hamill have propelled Franklin into the UFC limelight once again. The former Math teacher is looking to establish himself as a serious contender in perhaps the UFC’s most competitive weight class. The first major hurdle to another UFC title shot is MMA veteran and former Pride Champion Dan Henderson.

Franklin’s strategy is clear. If he has any advantages at all over the former Pride champion it is his dangerous and technically sound boxing. He if he can avoid the take downs and stay patient a decision victory is not out of the question.

Henderson (23-7) too is on the comeback trail as he works his way towards a rematch with current middleweight champion Anderson Silva. The well rounded wrestler has the ability to go toe to toe with some of the most dangerous strikers in the division. He has never been knocked out despite facing the likes of Wanderlei Silva and Quinton Rampage Jackson. He is well conditioned, disinclined and could take the fight anywhere.

There is no doubt he’ll spend long periods on his feet however its highly unlikely that Henderson will exchange with Franklin for the entire three rounds. He’ll take this fight to the ground at some stage. Henderson’s hands while not technically sound are very dangerous. He has after all gone gonde the distance with Quinton Jackson, knocked out Wanderlei Silva and beaten dangerous strickers Vitor Belfort and Gilbert Yvel. I simply cant see Frankin’s stand-up posing a serious threat. The former Olympian will trade with Franklin with the objective of holding his own on the feet and scoring points on the ground. A one-sided decision victory in Henderson’s favor is the most likely outcome. At +100 Henderson is the best bet on the card. All betting lines courtesy of Betus.com sportsbook.

Mark Coleman +288 vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua -365

Who could have foreseen these two former Pride stars would get to battle it out for a second time? Only a year ago Shogun Rua was hailed as the next big thing while Mark Coleman’s career looked to be over after the demise of Pride. After a bizarre turn of events their paths will once again collide on Saturday as Shogun looks to revenge his 2006 loss to the legendary Mark Coleman.

Shogun is the complete package. His stand-up is dynamic and his ground and pound is extremely dangerous. He has some of the best leg kicks in the business and on top of it all he has some pretty solid Brazilian Jujutsu. Other than wrestling his game is far superior to that of the veteran Coleman. If Shogun really is injury free this fight should be a foregone conclusion. However many questions mark hanging over both men but Shogun is still the proven commodity and the deserving favourite. A first round TKO is the most likely outcome.

Alan Belcher +275 vs. Denis Kang -300

International middleweight star Denis Kang makes his long awaited UFC debut against UFC veteran Alan “The Talent” Belcher. An impressive win over Belcher will catapult Kang straight into title contention in a thin middleweight division. Many Japanese based stars have struggled with the UFC transition however I cant see Kang making the same mistake. He has put his MMA career on the line to make it big in the US.

Belcher wont a pushover though. His stand-up is his biggest weapon however he isn’t as well rounded nor as experienced Kang. The Canadian is future force in the middleweight division, a round one TKO in Kang’s favour is the most likely outcome.

Marcus Davis -115 vs. Chris Lytle -105

This match-up is a top contender for fight of the night. Both guys like to keep it on their feet. Neither man is lacking on the ground but their comparative advantage lies in their stand-up. Lytle’s loses have mostly come to top contenders while he has overcome middle of the road competition with ease. Marcus Davis returned to winning form against Paul Kelly. He has evolved into a well rounded striker with his only significant loss in the past two years coming to Mike Swick.

This is a pick-em fight however I give the slight edge Lytle due his experience with top level welterweight competition.

Jeremy Horn vs. Rousimar Palhares

Brazilian Jujutsu ace Rousimar Palhares takes on veteran UFC fighter Jeremy Horn in another match that pits strength vs. strength.  Both men are world class ground fighters that have yet to develop their striking to levels required to become top contenders in their division. Horn is on a two fight losing streak, another loss tonight could end his career inside the Octagon. Palhares is coming of a unanimous decision loss to Dan Henderson, his first inside the Octagon. Despite loosing Palhares gaining valuable experience against one of the best middleweights in the world. He has the advantage both with his has and on the ground. A second round TKO victory is the most likely outcome.

Preliminary Card Quick Picks

* Well rounded Dutchmen Martin Kampmann over UFC debutant Alexandre Barros in close decision.

* European Top Team fighter Antonio Mendes over BJJ ace Eric Schafer via decision.

* Polish striker Tomasz Drwal over Ivan Serati via a first round TKO.

* Unbeaten John Hathaway over hometown favourite Thomas Egan via a round two TKO.

* German hope Dennis Siver over Nate Mohr via round two KO.

With a trip to the NFC title game at stake there is little doubt that the team that can impose its will and dictate the tempo by doing what it does best is the team that will ultimately advance. For Carolina (12-4, 9-6-1 ATS) that means administering a heavy dose of the run. With two 1,000-yard rushers in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, the Panthers pounded teams time and time again. Williams was particularly impressive racking up 1,515 yards and 20 touchdowns on the season.

Arizona (9-7, 9-7 ATS) might be the most one-dimensional team offensively in the league and while that may ultimately lead to its demise, it’s sure to be entertaining until the end. Armed with possibly the most talented wide receiver corps in the NFL, Kurt Warner has taken to the air more than any team. As a result the Cardinals finished second in the league in passing yards per game and third in points scored and helped them win their first division title since moving to the land of the sun. Arizona made a concerted effort to run the ball in its opening-round win over Atlanta but Warner and Co. must have a huge game for the Cardinals to have any shot of springing the upset on the road.

The deciding factors in this game are going to be the performance of the defenses and Carolina’s balance when they have the ball. Both clubs can put up points but unlike their counterparts the Panthers can actually stop teams on a regular basis. Expect Julius Peppers to harass Warner all game, helping the secondary slow down the Cardinals’ explosive aerial attack. On the flip side Arizona is going to find it very difficult keeping Carolina from lighting up the scoreboard. The defense did an admirable job slowing down Michael Turner and Matt Ryan last weekend but doing it on the road in a hostile environment against a team with far more playoff experience is a difference story. And as dominant as they are on the ground the Panthers can also beat you through the air. Steve Smith is one of the NFL’s true game breakers, and the Cardinals simply don’t have a player or even two players who can contain him. And between him and the running game Arizona won’t have an answer for Carolina’s offensive scheme.

There is also the questionable health of Anquan Boldin who left the wild card game with a leg injury. He’s been hobbled this week and while he expects to play, his effectiveness could be vastly limited.

The Cardinals were a nice story this season but January is when the pretenders are exposed and that is exactly what’s going to happen on Saturday night.

Pick: Carolina