First let me tell you that this is one of the most miss priced UFC events in years. There are at least four bouts that have been totally misjudged by the odds makers. On average there no more than one or two solid bets per UFC event. Four recommend plays is a rarity for me . If you don’t have an account already I suggest heading over to Betus.com sportsbook to take advantage of the loose lines on offer this weekend. I’ve teased you enough, my UFC 95 bets and fight predictions are listed after the jump.

Diego Sanchez -290 vs. Joe Stevenson +230

This is a match-up between two solid lightweights that have their backs against wall. The winner becomes an instant top five contender while the loser will have to reassess their UFC career.

Sanchez was one of the UFC’s poster boys when he was on his 19-0 run. He looked unstoppable until he met his nemesis Josh Koscheck. Another decision loss followed before the former TUF winner was relegated to the preliminary card. Despite recent results Sanchez is entering the prime of his career. Two tough losses against the absolute elite of the welterweight divisions should serve him well in this vital match-up. Once again he is facing an outstanding wrestler with limited striking abilities. Stevenson has underperformed when faced with truly world class talent. The same can be said of Sanchez however he has never been outclassed nor dominated the way Stevenson has been. “The Nightmare” should dominate from beginning to end on route a unanimous decision victory.

Nate Marquardt -300 vs. Wilson Gouveia +200

Nate Marquardt and Wilson Gouveia battle it out in a very thin middleweight division. The victor will secure high standing UFC’s middleweight rankings however a title shot will remain out of reach for either man. Gouveia has looked very impressive since moving down form the very competitive light heavyweight division. He holds a solid 6-2 UFC record with his only two loses coming to the talented GoranReljic and experienced striker Keith Jardine. Marquardt is one of the most savvy and experienced middleweights in the UFC. His only two loses in the past 6 years have come to the two men that will battle it out for the title at UFC 97,Thales Leites (Split Decision) and Anderson Silva.

At +200 the odds-makers are overestimating the danger posed by the talented but inconsistent Gouveia. A disciplined Marquardt should dominate and eventually stop a poorly conditioned Gouveia in the third round. I like this pick a lot, its my recommended bet of the night.

Demian Maia -275 vs. Chael Sonnen +220

Maia is a ground genius. His BJJ is out of this world. However the rising Brazilian star has still plenty to prove. His cardio and his striking are elementary at best. Despite the many holes in his game, I cant see Sonnen exploiting any of them on Saturday. The savvy veteran wont an easy match-up but Maia will walk away the victor.

Josh Koscheck -450 vs. Paulo Thiago +325

Josh Koscheck is on the comeback trail and needs a victory on Saturday to remain a top contender in a very tough welterweight division. Brazilian Paulo Thiago makes his UFC debut on Saturday. Little is known of the undefeated submission specialist. This is Koscheck’s third fight in four months, he appears to be regaining top form and should be too experienced for the newcomer.

Dan Hardy +105 vs. Rory Markham -135

This is being billed as the top “Fight of the Night” contender as both guys like to keep it on their feet. Hardy is a blue belt under Eddie Bravo and has the ability to take to the ground. His is the better technical striker and should control Markham with precise and disciplined boxing.

UFC 95 Best Bets: Diego Sanchez at -290, Demian Maia at -275, Nate Marquardt -300 and Dan Hardy at +105. Check out the current UFC 95 betting odds before placing your bets.

The betting favorite heading into speedweeks was restrictor plate king Dale Earnhardt Jr. He has had a ton of success at the super speedways and ran up front a good bit in the Budweiser shootout however faded deep in the field before he got caught in a wreck. Earnhardt also had troubles in the Gatorade 125 with a tire problem on Thursday, but managed to work his way back up to 7th. Hopefully his luck over the last week wont be an indicator for things to come on Sunday. Last year’s Daytona 500 winner, Ryan Newman also found troubles on Thursday. After a strong qualifying effort, Newman was turned head first into the wall in the 2nd race by the 00 car of David Reutimann. Newman hit the wall hard and will have to go to a back-up ride for the on Sunday.

Note: Visit the guys over at Betus.com sportsbook, if you’re still looking for a place to bet on the Daytona 500.

Other notables that have been running well this week include Tony Stewart in the new #14 Office Depot/Old Spice machine. Stewart has always run well at Daytona and Talladega and he has kept the new ride out front all week especially Thursday bring home a 2nd place finish in the first duel. Although the 2-time Cup Champion has never won the Daytona 500, he will still be one of the most favored drivers entering Sunday considering his impressive restrictor plate resume. Joey Logano had an equally impressive showing in the first duel race Thursday. Logano really struggled through the Bud Shootout and many had written off the youngest driver (18) to ever make a start at Daytona International Speedway. However, Logano driving the #20 Home Depot Toyota followed the former driver of the #20 car Tony Stewart to finish in 3rd position in the first duel on Thursday. Imagine how big the story lines would be if the 18 year old can pilot the #20 machine to a win at Daytona this Sunday.

Jimmie Johnson has also been strong this week in the #48 machine. Johnson may not be known as a restrictor plate racer, but the man who has won 3 straight championships will likely be a factor before the checkers fly this Sunday. Another driver whose chances are really looking good this week is the 50 year old veteran Mark Martin. Martin returns this season for one final full schedule with Hendrick Motorsports and is a 4 time Daytona 500 runner-up despite never winning the big event. However, Martin has been up front all week and he would be an excellent choice to place a gamble on. Even though most of the favorites are some of the biggest names in the sport, there are some young talented guys who will have a chance to shine this Sunday. Drivers like Brian Vickers, Aric Almirola, and A.J Almendinger all have the ability to sneak to the front and surprise some people along with a cast off other hopefuls this Sunday. With all the uncertainties that surround NASCAR, one thing that is certain is that the Daytona 500 can define a career and a win in this race means everything.

Daytona 500 Betting Lines

Dale Earnhardt Jr 6/1
Mark Martin  12/1
Jimmie Johnson 7/1
Kevin Harvick  15/1
Denny Hamlin  15/1
Kyle Busch  5/1
Joey Logano  50/1
Tony Stewart  12/1
Jeff Gordon  8/1
Carl Edwards  15/1
Kasey Kahne  35/1
Brian Vickers  40/1

The “West Coast Swing” as its often referred to begins this Thursday afternoon. This is usually the time we start seeing the best players in the World appearing in San Diego, California. Four time defending champion Tiger Woods wont be able to challenge for the title which leaves the betting wide open. Woods’ is expected to make his return in late February at the WGC Accenture Match Play Championship. A wide open field should provide plenty of value for bettors.

Padraig Harrington had the breakout year last season in Tiger’s absence winning the British Open and the PGA Championship. Harrington also capped off the season with a Player of the Year award. Entering this year’s Buick Invitational Harrington owns the best odds to win the Tournament at 11/1 despite this being his first ever appearance in the event. 3-time Buick winner Phil Mickelson shares favoritism at 11/1 odds. Mickelson won twice on the tour in 2008, but has not seemed to be playing his best golf. Mickelson missed the cut last week at the FBR Open in Scottsdale, Arizona marking the first time Mickelson has missed a cut in his season debut since 1992.

Tiger Woods isn’t the only big name missing from this year’s event. Sergio Garcia will also be absent along with Jeff Ogilvy, VJ Singh, and last week’s FBR Open winner Kenny Perry.

Below are latest Buick Invitational betting lines from Betus.com sportsbook.

Padraig Harrington  10/1
Phil Mickelson         10/1
Camilo Villegas         14/1
Luke Donald         20/1
Retief Goosen         20/1
Rory Sabbatini         25/1
Davis Love         25/1
Charles Howell         30/1
Aaron Baddeley     30/1
Hunter Mahan         30/1

Charles Howell III will be one of the top contenders you’ll need to keep an eye on. Howell has been fairly strong at Torrey Pines with a resume that includes two runner-up finishes and a 13th place finish last year. Luke Donald is another that should shine this week. Donald has an impressive record at Torrey Pines.  Donald has finished in the Top 25 in both events he has played this season while never finishing outside the Top 25 in the Buick Invitational in 5 starts.

Veterans Davis Love III and Jose Maria Olazabal are only two competitors to win the Buick Invitational in the last 12 years to be in the field outside of Phil Mickelson. Olazabal won the event back in 2002 and is the only International player to ever win the event and this will be his season debut. Davis Love III finished 2nd in the Mercedes-Benz Classic two weeks ago after missing the cut in the first event of the season the Sony Open in Hawaii. It will be interesting to see if some familiar faces will climb the leader board this weekend in San Diego or if some new names will emerge from the field to capture the Tour’s 5th tournament and most prestigious victory this early in the season.

Even more significant has been the withdrawal of Emelianenko’s younger brother Alexander due to undisclosed medical concerns.  The California State Athletic Commission has refused to license the Russian. A late replacement has been found. Veteran figher Gary Goodridge has been called up to replace Emelianenko and face Paul Buentello on Saturday.

Betting lines have also finally been posted for the entire preliminary card.  Below are the updated fight odds for the event.

Affliction Banned Betting Lines Update
Saturday, July 19,Honda Center in Anaheim, California

Heavyweights: Fedor Emelianenko vs Tim Sylvia

* Fedor Emelianenko(-300)
* Tim Sylvia (+240)

Heavyweights: Andrei Arlovski vs. Ben Rothwel

* Andrei Alaska (-225)
* Ben Rothwel(+185)

Heavyweights: Josh Barnett vs. Pedro Rizzo

* Josh Barnett (-350)
* Pedro Rizzo (+280)

Welterweights: Matt Lindland vs. Fabio Negao

* Matt Lindland (-425)
* Fabio Negao (+345)

Light Heavyweights: Renato Sobral vs. Mike Whitehead

* Renato Sobral (-275)
* Mike Whitehead (+215)

Undercard card

Light Heavyweights: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Edwin Dewees

*Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (-1500)
*Edwin Dewees (+700)

Middleweights: Vitor Belfort vs. Terry Martin

*Vitor Belfort (-260)
*Terry Martin (+200)

Featherweights Savant Young vs. Mark Hominick

*Savant Young (Even)
*Mark Hominick (-130)

Welterweights Mike Pyle vs. JJ Ambrose

*Mike Pyle (-450)
*JJ Ambrose (+300)

Middleweights Justin Levens vs. Ray Lizama

*Justin Levens (-210)
*Ray Lizama (+170)

Bet on the Affliction “Banned” fight sign up at our friends at Bookmaker.com . Bookmaker accepts customers from all over the world, including Canada and the US. For live play by of the event visit our friends at the Savage Science.

Wigan has been a much improved side under Steve Bruce after a pretty awful start to the season but results and performances have picked up and I think they are finally starting to pull away from the relegation zone although this match against Man City is a
tough one. Their record against Man City in recent times has been positive, the men from Manchester have not beaten them in the Premier League in 5 meetings. Wigan most recently winning 1-0 at the City of Manchester last season and claiming a 1-1 draw against them at the JJB.

Wigan do however struggle to score on their travels but watching their last away game at Sunderland I felt that they did deserve something, having created so many chances I just couldn’t believe they hadn’t managed to get themselves on the scoreboard. They are missing only Ryan Taylor for this match and when you can call on 3 powerful strikers in Marcus Bent, Emile Heskey and Marlon King you know you have a team that can compete in the Premier League and really upset teams.

I have not been very impressed with Manchester City lately, despite winning at Old Trafford a few weeks ago they really didn’t make that result count on Monday when they were outplayed and outfought by a very strong Everton team. They have won only 2 of their last 10 Premier League matches and are missing two of their most impressive performers for tonight’s match with Martin Petrov suspended and Micah Richards injured while defender Vedran Corluka and midfielder Elano are poised to return to the starting line-up while and midfielder Michael Johnson comes into contention following an abdominal strain.

City started the season in great form but I saw signs of weakness creeping in. Wigan’s good record against City and their physical style are two reasons why I am going for them on the Handicap. I fancied Wigan to win the game at a very good price and but taking them at +0.5 on the Handicap is a sensible option for me and one I advise you to take . I see signs of Wigan’s game similar to Everton’s who completely outclassed City on Monday. Lets make it 3 from 3 tonight.

WIGAN ATHLETIC 1.82 AH (BET365) OVER MANCHESTER CITY

Pick: WIGAN ATHLETIC 1.82 AH

Scores: WIGAN ATHLETIC 0 : 0 MANCHESTER CITY

Result: WIN

Odds: 1.82

Sportsbook: Bet365

BONUS PICK: DYNAMO KYIV 2.1 AT Bet365 OVER DNIPRO TOP
Dnipro Top of the Ukrainian League faced 3rd placed and reigning champions Dynamo Kyiv in an eagerly anticipated match. Dynamo Kyiv are a club with so much tradition and have always been the most successful club in the Ukraine but things have been changing as teams such as Shakhtar Donetsk, Metalist Kharkiv and today’s opponents Dnipro are challenging. Dynamo were poor in the Champions League and failed to get a point but I saw signs of a decent team reemerging and I think with a new Manager at the helm they really push on. Yuri Semin was appointed 2 months ago and has made a big impact aldready. Semin is a legend at Lokomitv Moscow as he changed the club from being a mid table side in to one of Russia’s most successful clubs, he also coached the Russian national team. Dnipro are a team I know as I have seen them play against my team Middlesbrough but I also saw them against Aberdeen in this season’s UEFA Cup and they did not impress me. It looks like they have improved since then as they have won 7 straight in all competitions but they did not play any of the top sides.Dynamo will be up for this one tomorrow and will be very confident, they know they need a win as 3 points will put them only a point behind Dnipro and I am confident they can get a vital win. BET RESULT: WIN

A Federal holiday here in the US (George Washington’s Birthday for those of you scoring at home) gives us an early start time on this NHL tilt between two defensively oriented teams. Both have gone through scoring droughts on several occasions this season, and both are better served by a tightly contested checking oriented game than a wide open offensive affair. This is evidenced not only by the fact that both teams have a bias toward the UNDER in their seasons to date, but in their head to head matchups: 10 of the L14 head to head and 5 of the L6 at this venue have gone UNDER. The last time these two teams met was last season and the Sharks won a 2-0 verdict at home. Don’t be surprised to see a similarly low score in this matchup.

With solid goaltending at both ends of the ice and a fair number of injuries further weakening these teams’ offensive production the UNDER looks to be the smart play here. The total is set at 5 OV -127 (Pinnacle) which gives us a nice +117 price on the other side.

SAN JOSE SHARKS/NEW YORK ISLANDERS UNDER 5 +117 (PINNACLE)

When evaluating a fighter for handicapping purposes there’s several things I consider including level of opposition throughout ones career, relative success and failure against similar types and quality of opposition, and the specific matchup at hand. I place a heavy emphasis on recent form as manifest in the won/loss record and in a more objective assessment of how a fighter is progressing—or regressing—in the performance of his craft. These criteria are the “doses of reality” I’ve been trying to give the Tank Abbott fans who suggest that his status as a +300 (BodogLife) underdog is the bookmaker’s gift of the century. Check out our dedicated UFC odds page for further betting bargains.

First of all, lets give Tank a little bit of credit: he’s been in with a much better class of opponent than Kimbo including Oleg Taktarov, Don Frye, Dan Severn, Vitor Belfort and Pedro Rizzo. Now the bad news—he’s a combined 0-5 against these top tier fighters with none making it out of the first round. More significantly, his last bout against a top tier fighter (with the notable exception of a 2005 first round loss to Hidehiko Yoshida) was in 1998, or nearly a decade ago. That era—late 1997 to 1998—was also significant as it was the last time Abbott won back-to-back fights.

Tank hung up the gloves after his 1998 loss to Rizzo before returning at UFC 41 in 2/2003 where he lost to Frank Mir by submission at :45 of the first round. Including the Mir loss, none of his 7 “comeback” fights have made it out of the first round—but not in a good way. Tank has lost 6 of his 7 fights since 1993 by first round submission or KO/TKO. His lone win in this decade was a 1st round KO of Wesley “Cabbage” Correira (who’s 2-5 in his L7 fights including a loss to “Butterbean”). The fact that Tank was revenging a loss in an earlier matchup with “Cabbage” makes the win even less impressive.

Throw in Kimbo’s physical advantages—he’s taller and in clearly better shape, the age differential (Kimbo is 9 years younger), and the difference in the two fighters’ dedication to training (Kimbo trains with MMA legend Bas Rutten and is clearly more “cut” than in his street fighting days; its not apparent if Tank trains at all since he’s bragged in the past that he doesn’t) and this matchup becomes even more one sided.

The bottom line is that the only reason Tank Abbott is here is that he’s got the name recognition to sell tickets. Aside from his edge in experience, he may actually be a step *down* in class from Kimbo’s opponent in his EliteXC debut, Bo Cantrell. Cantrell lasted :19 seconds and this fight will likely be as one-sided. I’ll give Tank the benefit of the doubt and say that he makes it out of the first minute of the fight, but he won’t make it out of the first round.

PREDICTION: KIMBO SLICE BY 1ST ROUND KO/TKO

From a wagering standpoint, its hard to justify laying the current -441 on Kimbo. I got my clients on Kimbo early when he was at -300, but with a couple of solid dogs on the card there’s better value elsewhere. On the other hand, I definitely can’t make a case for taking the underdog here.

If you’re not able to watch the event live you can follow the round by round coverage online. The broadcast begins at 10 PM Eastern Standard Time and we’ll pick up the round by round coverage at that time. Check out Bodog for the latest odds for this card.

Check out part one of this weeks MMA picks at MMA Betting: EliteXC Preview and Picks.

Like virtually all serious sports wagering, betting MMA is all about finding value. If you bet on “undervalued” fighters and against “overvalued” fighters over the long run you’ll make money. The biggest mistake that neophyte sports gamblers make is thinking that serious handicapping is all about teams, players, injuries and matchups. The reality is that those are simply components of what serious sports handicapping is really about: it’s all about numbers. Before we get started I urge you to visit our dedicated UFC odds page for further analysis of upcoming fight cards.

The beautiful thing about betting moneyline underdogs is that you drastically lower the breakeven percentage you need to surpass in order to show a profit. Most people understand the basics of the breakeven percentage—at +100 (even money) if you win more than 50% of your wagers you’ll show a profit. If you’re laying the 11/10 (-110) required for most pointspread wagers you need to win more than 52.4% of the time to stay in the black. Nevertheless, its funny how many “chalk eaters” who’ll gladly throw down -200 or more on what they perceive to be a “sure thing” don’t understand this concept. If you’re betting a -200 favorite you have to win more than 66.7% of the time to turn a profit. That’s why when you make the decision to “lay the wood” you need to make damn sure you’re getting quality for the “high price” you’re paying.

On Saturday night’s EliteXC MMA card there’s a heavyweight bout where one fighter is a -200 favorite and I’m of the opinion that its not justified. In other words, the underdog in this matchup presents an attractive wagering value:

James Thompson -201 (1.50)
Brett Rogers +181 (2.81)
Odds from Pinnacle and Partybets, make sure to visit them if you’re going be doing any MMA betting online. US visitors check out Bodog for latest MMA and UFC betting odds.

James Thompson is big. Real big. 6’5” 265 pounds of “big”. At first glance he bears an uncanny resemblance to one of the world’s top heavyweight boxers, Wladimir Klitschko. Unfortunately, the only thing he shares with the highly skilled “Steel Hammer” Dr. Klitschko is a superficial similarity. Thompson is big, and for all I know may be a very nice and decent guy. One thing he’s not, however, is a particularly skillful fighter. We’ll talk more about that in a moment.

His opponent here is a relative unknown guy named Brett Rogers. Rogers is a big dude himself, a rugged black guy with a “Mr. T” style Mohawk haircut. While Rogers has fought a somewhat undistinguished level of opposition so far, he’s 5-0 in his MMA career with none of his fights making it out of the first round. He won his EliteXC debut against Ralph Kelly last November by submission (his opponent tapped rather than get hit any more) and his other 4 wins are all by KO/TKO. Its always hard to tell what will happen with a fighter who’s dominated overmatched opponents—are they “up and coming fighters” or will they be exposed when they step up in class? His level of competition notwithstanding, what we do know about Rogers is that he’s got very heavy hands and he’s not at all shy about using them.

Thompson is somewhat hard to figure based on his recent record. On one hand, he’s 2-5 in his L7 fights with all 5 losses coming by TKO or submission (4 in the first round). On the other hand, the two victories during that stretch are pretty impressive—TKO wins in PRIDE bouts against former Olympic judo gold medalist Hidehiko Yoshida and one of the toughest SOB’s walking the face of the earth, Don Frye. And while those are certainly impressive victories, it’s the level of opposition he’s lost to that concerns me more: his last fight, for example, was a loss to a fighter at a similar place in his career as Rogers named Neil Grove. Thompson lost this one by KO at the ten second mark of the first round. The rest of his losses aren’t exactly shameful—certainly no shame in losing to tough Kazuyuki Fujita and two of his other losses are to decent fighters. Still, consider the fight Thompson lost between his victories over Yoshida and Frye: that was a loss to none other than Eric “Butterbean” Esch at 0:43 of the first round.

I probably don’t need to make any more of a case against Thompson than emphasizing the fact that laying -200 with a guy that has a loss to “Butterbean” on his resume is a long term losing strategy. In all seriousness, unless Thompson is in against a fighter that he can completely overwhelm with his size he’s proven to be very “beatable”. Brett Rogers may be something of an unknown, but he’s got good size and strength and in the past that’s been enough to beat Thompson.

So why is Thompson a -200 favorite in the first place? Probably because he’s big and better known than his opponent from his tenure in PRIDE—in other words, he’s pricing is justified by public perception and not any intrinsic superiority over his opponent. I’m not saying that Thompson can’t win, just that this fight is more of a “coin flip”. If you’re laying -200 on one side of a coin flip, you’re not very smart but taking +181 on that proposition—with a theoretical breakeven of right around 36% is a very good move indeed.

BET BRETT ROGERS +181 OVER JAMES THOMPSON @ ELITE XC MMA 2/16/08 (lines from Pinnacle)

If you’re not able to watch the event live you can follow the round by round coverage online. The broadcast begins at 10 PM Eastern Standard Time and we’ll pick up the round by round coverage at that time. Check out Bodog and Bookmaker for the latest odds for this card.

Check out part one of this weeks MMA picks at MMA Betting: EliteXC Preview and Picks.

Click here for my final thoughts on the Kimbo vs Tank matchup.

Post your comments and picks below.

Get the latest MMA odds at Bodog
UFC, EliteXC, Strikeforce and more.

Wednesday night offers us possibly the most exciting regular NBA season games of ‘07-08, as the Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors do battle. Both teams feature explosive, run-and-gun offenses and provide little resistance on the defensive end. Although Phoenix enters the contest sporting the best record in the Western Conference, it hasn’t looked like itself since the trade of Shawn Marion for Shaquille O’Neal. An already-undersized team without the Big Aristotle in the lineup, the Suns have let teams stay in games by failing to clean up on the glass or make them work for buckets inside. Amare Stoudamire is a force on the offensive end, but the young star has a long way to go on the defensive side of the ball.

Golden State, meanwhile, plays the up-tempo game as well as Phoenix does, in large part thanks to the dramatically-improved Monta Ellis. Few players can score as well as he can from the the guard spot, and few at any position attack the rim with as much ferocity.

He can score in a variety of ways, and his improvement makes the Warriors even more dangerous than they were last season. Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson are having All-NBA-type years, and while they don’t play much defense, they are virtually unstoppable with the ball.

If the Warriors are hitting their 3’s with any consistency, the Suns simply won’t be able to keep up. That’s not something that can often be said about them, but it should prove true Wednesday night. Golden State relishes the underdog role, but they’ll just have to settle for winning as a favorite for once in what should be a statement game out West.

Pick: Golden State -1.5

Scores: Phoenix Suns 118 : Golden State Warriors 120

Result: W

Odds: 1.91 (-110)

Sportsbook: Bookmaker.com

Post your comments and picks below. See picks competition details here.

As it became clear during the course of the game that he was unlikely to win, he just got angrier and angrier. You’ve heard the term “going on tilt” in the world of gambling. I was about to see it happen.

Instead of taking his medicine, accepting the loss, and moving on, my friend decided to make a big bet in a new game that was about to start. It was a selection he wasn’t even going to bet in the first place. But anger about the lack of defense in the first game inspired a notion that “nobody plays defense any more,” in my angry friend. He made a big impulse bet on an Over. It wasn’t as big as the first bet that loss. It was a large sized play though.

You can guess what happened.

Because my friend had bet an amount he couldn’t handle emotionally in the first game, he acted irrationally and lost a second big bet. If you find yourself digging a hole, put the shovel down!

Note that this wagering mistake wasn’t much about proper analysis, or shopping for the best line, or using money management strategies to maximize your edge. It was just a tantrum from somebody who lost his cool.

I think this is a concept that doesn’t nearly get enough attention. Part of the winning process is the proper evaluation of the elements in play. If you can’t think clearly, you can’t properly evaluate. It’s critical for you to find a comfort level in your sports wagers in terms of your bankroll AND your ability to think straight. It’s not just “is this the right amount given the size of my bankroll?” It’s also “will this amount influence my ability to make proper decisions in other games today?”

My friend lost about 4% of his bankroll on his big play, then lost another 3% on a bet that should never have been made. It’s a lot easier to climb out of a 4% hole than a 7% hole. If he had risked just 3% on that first bet, he probably wouldn’t have had such an angry reaction. His other winnings last weekend would have covered that 3% loss anyway. He would have broken even and moved onto the next day. Instead, he took a really big hit.

Finding a “comfort level” in wagering means developing the calm confidence to go forward and play intelligently when you’re not winning. You can’t make smart bets if you’re not thinking clearly!