The media is no doubt jumping on the bandwagon.

Charitable Man, who will be ridden by jockey Alan Garcia, looked like a pretty good prospect for the Kentucky Derby when he romped to an 11 1/2 -length victory in his first race and then won the Futurity at Belmont in mid-September 2008. But a shin injury that required surgery dashed those hopes, meaning he couldn’t compete in any of the Derby prep races.

“It was frustrating because he’s so talented,” McLaughlin said.

The horse still had enough graded stakes earnings to qualify for the Derby, but McLaughlin and owner William Warren decided to hold Charitable Man out of the race when he didn’t run well in the Blue Grass Stakes in April, finishing seventh. When Mine That Bird came out of nowhere to win the Derby, McLaughlin acknowledged he was kicking himself for not taking his shot with Charitable Man. He said he won’t make that mistake again.

Certainly there many credible threats around for Charitable Man. However as the value propositions its hard to go past him.

Belmont Stakes 2009
The field

Post, Horse Jockey Odds

1. Chocolate Candy Gomez 10-1
2. Dunkirk Velazquez 4-1
3. Mr. Hot Stuff Prado 15-1
4. Summer Bird Desormeaux 12-1
5. Luv Gov Mena 20-1
6. Charitable Man Garcia 3-1
7. Mine That Bird Borel 2-1
8. Flying Private Leparoux 12-1
9. Miner’s Escape Lezcano 15-1
10. Brave Victory Maragh 15-1

Betting Lessons

So you want to bet on the 2009 Belmont Stakes? Here’s some free advice – don’t. Now that might seem a strange statement on a website such as this, but the single most important piece of advice any professional gambler can offer anyone in their expert field is “don’t swim with the sharks”.

Of course not many let those words pass their lips. The livelihood of any professional gambler is significantly dependent on less-skilled people playing in the same swimming pool. Be very clear that sports betting, like poker, is skill-based gambling with an element of luck, not the other way around.

So why do I offer these sage words of wisdom before the 2009 Belmont Stakes? Quite apart from the fact I’m a really nice person, I know that human nature will dictate that for every ten people who will read the opening paragraph and vow never to bet on a sporting event again, there will be at least a hundred who will quite happily ignore me. That’s fine, no-one likes been told what to do and if I am really honest your ignorance is my bliss. But if you are going to be one of those hundred, you might like to keep reading.

Sports betting is no different to any other walk of life where highly skilled people operate. They may work for a bookmaker, setting prices for their paymasters contributing to their profit. Or they may be on the other side, unwavering in their quest to make money off whomever they can cross swords with. The point is there are people who make a living from sports betting who spend a large portion of their waking hours staying ahead of the pack. If you’re not one of them, what are you doing standing up there on the diving board?

This brings me to perhaps the second most-important piece of advice I can give you – be very clear on the reasons why you bet and your expectations from doing so. I mean, if you’re a recreational tennis player and you play a set against Roger Federer – do you have any hope of winning? You might win a point here and there, but at the end of the day, will you win or lose?

So why do you bet? If purely for fun, to add a bit of extra enjoyment when you watch a sporting event from the stands or on TV, good for you. Despite what do-gooders say, there is nothing wrong with recreational gambling, so long as you do not spend more than you can afford to lose. If you are a seasoned pro, what the hell are you doing reading this – you’re learning nothing new.

It’s the people in the middle who need to stop and think for more than a moment – those that think they can make money from the game without perhaps realizing the work required to maximize their chances of doing so. So to the people surfing the internet trying to pick up tips on how to be successful at sports betting, sit down and really ask yourself are you prepared to put in the required graft to be successful? If so, welcome to the club. But if you have any doubts, do it for fun – and don’t get stuck in the middle.

Good luck betting one of the most exciting spectacles events this year. Join Bodog to take part in the racing excitement.

Now that Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra is out of the Belmont Stakes and will likely return to facing the ladies in the Mother Goose Stakes at the end of June, the field is starting to take shape.

Nine three year olds will likely take on Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird in the final leg of the Triple Crown.

Jockey Calvin Borel returns to rider Mine That Bird, and the gelding likely will go off as the post time favorite on Saturday.

Does the gelding join the ranks of chalky winners of the race like Afleet Alex ($4.30), Empire Maker ($6.00), and Point Given ($4.70)?

Or will one of the other nine runners pull off the upset, and finish off the decade with another juicy winner like Da’Tara ($79.00), Birdstone ($74.00), and Sarava ($142.50)?

Here is a quick look at the probables for our Belmont stakes 2009 date:

Brave Victory: The colt is one of two to go for hall of fame trainer Nick Zito, who pulled off two of the biggest upsets in Belmont Stakes history with Da’ Tara last year and Birdstone in 2004, ending the Triple Crown aspirations of Smarty Jones and Big Brown. The colt made a good late run to finish third in the Peter Pan Stakes in his last start.

Charitable Man: This colt likely is going to be the “buzz” horse this week for the Racebook. The son of Lemon Drop Kid won the Peter Pan last out, earning a career top speed fig. He looks primed for a top effort here as he makes his third start of the year.

Chocolate Candy: The colt sat out the Preakness Stakes after checking in fifth in the Kentucky Derby. The colt was squeezed back coming out of the gate in the Derby. The colt is a three-time stakes winner and picks up jockey Garrett Gomez.

Dunkirk: The lightly raced colt was sent off at just 5/1 in the Kentucky Derby after an impressive second in the Florida Derby in his stakes debut. The $3.7 million purchase had a tough trip in the Derby and is eligible to move forward off that effort. He has quite the pedigree, by Unbridled’s Song out of the multiple stakes winner Secret Status.

Flying Private: After a 19th place finish in the Kentucky Derby, this colt made a belated late run to finish fourth in the Preakness Stakes, beaten four lengths for the top spot. The colt has won just 1 of 12 career starts but earned a career best speed figure in his Preakness effort and has enough pedigree to handle the 1 ½ mile distance of the Belmont Stakes.

Luv Gov: The colt was not a factor after a wide trip in the Preakness Stakes, which was his first start against winners. It took ten tries just for this colt to break his maiden. How this guy went off at 24/1 in the Preakness is a real mystery. It looked like he should have been 90/1.

Mine That Bird: His Kentucky Derby win was aided by a dream trip and a golden rail, but he proved it was not a fluke with a solid runner up finish in the Preakness Stakes. With Rachel Alexandra out, the gelding is reunited with Calvin Borel, which is a big plus as Borel seeks to become the first jockey to win all three Triple Crown races with more than one horse. The gelding is the likely favorite but one-run horses generally do not fare well in the Belmont Stakes.

Miner’s Escape: This colts the second of the duo that will be sent out by Nick Zito. The colt won the Federico Tesio at Pimlico last out in his first start against winners. The colt looks like he is heading in the right direction and has a long-winded pedigree, but will need some of that Zito magic to win.

Mr. Hot Stuff: This colt did not have the best of trips in the Kentucky Derby. Two back he was a good third in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), beaten just two lengths by the winner Pioneerof the Nile and a length behind the runner up Chocolate Candy. The colt only has one win in eight starts on his resume.

Summer Bird: After a good effort in a third place finish in the Arkansas Derby (G2) this colt was parked wide much of the trip in a sixth place finish in the Kentucky Derby. The colt gets a jockey upgrade to Kent Desormeaux, and the colt is a son of 2004 Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone.

Note: For those still searching for a sportsbook for the event, what better place than Sportsbook.com? With some of the best MMA odds to choose from, you simply cant go wrong with these guys.

A year ago, who would have thought that “Sugar” Rashad Evans (18-0-1) would fight Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (32-0-1) for the light heavyweight title. Both men have come a long way since their UFC debuts. They have been criticized for the styles and antics yet both remain unbeaten.  Its something only a handful of fighters have been able to accomplish on their way toward the championship belt.

Brazilian Karate champion Machida remains the heavy favorite going into the bout. At -190 he’ll be hard to beat. Evans though could be a value play at +200. The latest UFC 98 betting odds are listed below. All lines accurate at the time of posting.

Odds for UFC 98

Lyoto Machida -200
Rashad Evans +170

Matt Hughes -270
Matt Serra +230

Frank Edgar +260
Sean Sherk -320

Dave Kaplan +125
George Roop -145

Kyle Bradley +290
Phillipe Nover -350

Brandon Wolff +365
Yoshiyuki Yoshida -460

Pat Barry -300
Tim Hague +220

Brock Larson +120
Chris Wilson -167

Drew Mcfedries -227
Xavier Foupa-Pokam +157

Andre Gusmao -118
Krzysztof Soszynski -118

Dont be an armchair quarterback. Its time to put your money where your mouth is, head over to Sportsbook and place your UFC 98 bets today!

Rachel Alexandra, available at a prohibitive +150 ,is the clear front-runner. A $2 bet on leading horse will payout a measly $3 in winnings come race day. Second favorites Mine that Bird and Pioneerof The Nile are someway off at +450. A $2 bet will return a respectable $9. Friesan Fire currently looks like a value play at +650 with a $13 profit on a $2 outlay. Other long shots you may want to keep an eye on include Papa Clem’s at +800 and Big Drama listed at +1000 (a return of $10 for a $1 outlay).

What makes this year unique is the shocking win registered by Mine That Bird on the first Saturday in May. The Derby winner is almost an automatic contender in Baltimore, but The Bird never showed that kind of ability before, and I am going to consider it a fluke performance until proven otherwise. With the Derby winner safely tossed, the Preakness seemingly comes down to three main contenders.

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Pioneerof The Nile brought a four race win streak to Churchill Downs, and he was hardly disgraced in a rock solid place finish. He was trying conventional dirt for the first time in the Derby, and he should go better in Baltimore with that experience under his belt. He continues to train well and adapts to various pace scenarios. I would like to see him relax early and finish, because that seems to be his most effective style.

Rachel Alexandra has not been challenged by fillies in her last five facile route tallies. She wheels back quickly to tackle the gents from the outside post. She does have the speed and ability to get the job done, but she will not offer much value in the Preakness, and she does not figure to receive a warm reception from the boys.

Musket Man has five wins and two show finishes from seven lifetime starts, and he was a fine third in the Kentucky Derby. He lands an advantageous inner post and can sit the right ground saving stalking trip at nice odds. He drilled a strong four furlong bullet at Monmouth for this, and it would be a wise decision to include him in all wagering decisions.

Preakness Stakes 2009 betting odds

Rachel Alexandra   +150
Mine That Bird   +450
Pioneerof The Nile  +450
Friesan Fire  +650
Papa Clem +800
Big Drama +1000
Musket Men  +1000
General Quarters  +1500
Take The Points  +2500
Tone it Down  +3000
Terrain  +3000
Flying Private   +4000
Lov Gov   +4000

Pioneerof The Nile had won four straight prior to the Derby, and he looked home free at Churchill, but Mine That Bird flew on by in the lane. He still fought hard for the place, and his final drill for the Preakness was strong. He has seemingly acclimated to conventional dirt, and I am anticipating an exciting battle with the filly.

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Rachel Alexandra has been untouchable in her last five stakes routes and was especially impressive in the Kentucky Oaks. She comes back in two weeks for new connections and meets a solid group of males. I respect her early/pressing speed but fear she will be overbet.

Friesan Fire had everything go wrong as the beaten up Derby favorite. He bounced back with a strong Pimlico drill and figures to go much better this time around. I will include the Larry Jones runner in exotics.

Musket Man always runs his race and posted a strong Monmouth Park work for this. Overchiever is a must use in exotics.

Papa Clem ran better than I expected in the Derby, but I have never been a big fan of the Arkansas Derby winner, and he will not be on my tickets in the second jewel.

General Quarters has been inconsistent recently, and note that he has lost six of his last seven dirt starts. I will let him beat me.

Big Drama will be part of the pace, but I am not sure if he is up to this distance with one sprint prep in the last five months.

Take the Points is back on preferred dirt and has been pointing to this since the Santa Anita Derby. I like his positional speed but think he is most effective at shorter distances.

Terrain has lost all of his route attempts, but I would not be shocked if the late runner snuck into the trifecta.

Mine That Bird ran out of his mind in the Derby, but his prior speed ratings suggest that effort was a fluke. Let’s see him do it again!

Flying Private flopped from a tough post position on the first Saturday in May. He is better than that but not good enough to threaten these.

Local hope Tone It Down appears over matched, along with Wayne Lukas trainee Luv Gov.

Here are my best bets for the 2009 Preakness. A win bet on Pioneerof The Nile, followed by a trifecta keying Pioneerof The Nile over Musket Man, Friesan Fire, Terrain, and Rachel Alexandra.

Three contenders are leading the betting. At +250 odds, I Want Revenge is the race favorite according at Sportsbook.com with Dunkirk next best at +400 and Friesan Fire close behind at +500. My betting advice for this years Derby is to look for value. Forget the leading contenders, this year a long shot is going to take it out. The run of short favorites dominating this race is over. Cash in by ignoring the pundits and going against the trend.

2009 Kentucky Derby Odds

Head over to Sportsbook the latest odds.

Advice +2000
Atomic Rain +5000
Chocolate Candy +2000
Desert Party +1500
Dunkirk +400
Flying Private +4000
Friesan Fire +500
General Quarters +2000
Hold Me Back +1500
I Want Revenge +250 (Scratched)
Join In The Dance +5000
Mine That Bird +5000
Mr Hot Stuff +3000
Musket Man +2000
Nowhere To Hide +5000
Papa Clem +2000
Pionnerof the Nile +400
Regal Ransom +3000
Summer Bird +5000
West Side Bernie +3000

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I respect Dunkirk and Friesan Fire, but they do not fit my Derby criteria. The former has yet to win a stakes race and did not race as a juvenile, while the latter has not raced beyond a mile and a sixteenth and makes his first start in seven weeks. Both horses figure to take action, and I will let them beat me.

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Now, I will present the top three contenders for the 2009 Kentucky Derby based on my above criteria, and I’ll start with my top selection Pioneerof The Nile. Note: You may also want to check out my complete Kentucky Derby predictions post in which I handicap the entire field.

The good looking Zayat Stables colt has won four straight graded races under Garrett Gomez, and he was my Breeders’ Cup Juvenile pick, so I am not about to jump ship now. His synthetic speed ratings have not been sharp, but I love his ability to move early while adapting to various pace scenarios. He has reportedly looked rock solid since arriving in Louisville, and if he handles the dirt the rest are in big trouble. Bob Baffert has won the Derby three times, and his sire Empire Maker was my Derby and Belmont Stakes selection in 2003.

Hold Me Back in the same synthetic boat as Pioneerof The Nile. I was very impressed with his Lane’s End triumph, and he regressed as expected in the Blue Grass. I love the big race off the layoff followed by a solid effort. He is training well for this and needs some pace help. As an interesting side note, his conditioner Bill Mott trained Pioneerof The Nile as a juvenile, and jockey Kent Desormeaux won the Derby last year aboard Big Brown.

Update: I Want Revenge has been scratched. He won both of his dirt starts at Aqueduct impressively, and he continues to be on his toes in the morning. Lack of value is a negative. Note that Pioneerof The Nile beat him twice in California, and based on post draw, his nemesis figures to shadow him throughout. Many do not like his trainer Jeff Mullins or part-owner IEAH Stables, but do not hold that against the horse, and how can you not root for confident young rider Joe Talamo.

Pioneerof The Nile (4-1) was my BC Juvenile selection and is my pick to win the 2009 Kentucky Derby. His sire Empire Maker was my Derby top, and his trainer Bob Baffert has won the Derby three times. Top notch rider Garrett Gomez is 4-4 with him, and he adapts to various pace scenarios. He has reeled off four straight graded wins and has looked the part since arriving in Louisville. He beat today’s morning line favorite I Want Revenge (Scratched) twice in California and wins this if able to transfer his synthetic form to conventional dirt.

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Desert Party (15-1) has been on my radar screen since Arlington debut last summer. He had a good winter in Dubai and is training with a purpose for this. Godolphin has failed to win our Derby numerous times, but this $2.1 million son of Street Cry has the talent to get them over the hump.

Hold Me Back (15-1) is a live longshot. He is training well for this and looked great in Lane’s End comeback. He regressed a bit in Blue Grass last time, and he should be rounding back to top effort. He needs pace help and must prove he can handle dirt.

I Want Revenge (Scratched) looked good defeating inferior horses in the Gotham and Wood, and he showed the ability to overcome trouble last time. He’s been looking well since arriving at Churchill. He has controversial trainer Jeff Mullins in his corner, and young jockey Joe Talamo exudes confidence. He owns running style versatility. Obvious contender will not offer value.

Chocolate Candy (20-1) did not look good when first arriving at Churchill, but he has been much improved this week and could surprise from off the pace. He has been part of trifecta in all six synthetic stakes starts, and look out if he handles the surface.

Friesan Fire (5-1) might try to play catch me if you can for Larry Jones. I am not thrilled about the layoff, and he has yet to race beyond a mile and a sixteenth, but he might last a long time if able to sneak away early.

Dunkirk (4-1) is the 2009 version of Big Brown, but there is more depth/talent in this renewal, and the promising Pletcher runner might get over bet. Note that he did not race as a juvenile and has yet to win a stakes race.

Regal Ransom (30-1) rode the speed bias to victory in Dubai last time. He has looked good in Churchill training sessions and looms a pace factor at the very least. I have a feeling the distance is slightly out of his reach.

Mr. Hot Stuff (30-1) is on the improve but remains eligible for an entry level spot. His brother (Colonel John) was my Derby top last year, and he owns enough of a late kick to land a share.

Flying Private (50-1) has multiple Derby winning trainer Wayne Lukas in his corner, and he had a breathing issue from the Arkansas Derby corrected. $700k purchase owns a strong pedigree and plenty of experience. He has only scored once but could hit the board at a big price.

General Quarters (20-1) has been much improved in morning activity at Churchill and handles any footing. He seems a cut below the best, and many will be rooting for veteran trainer Tom McCarthy.

Musket Man (20-1) landed an inner post and will probably have to be used a bit early to keep from getting shuffled back. I have always liked him, but he’s short on pedigree and has not looked good in his morning activity at Churchill.

West Side Bernie (30-1) has lost five straight and is stuck on the rail. He had a touch of colic after the Wood and has only had one Derby work. I would not be shocked if he snuck into the superfecta, but anything more would be a surprise.

Papa Clem (20-1) is not training well, and I thought the Arkansas Derby was one of the weaker Derby preps.

Advice (30-1) is back in two weeks after a graded synthetic score. He failed to fire versus lesser in lone conventional dirt try, and I cannot see him threatening these.

Summer Bird (50-1) ran a big race to land the show in the Arkansas Derby, but he has looked tired in his recent morning activity. He remains eligible for an entry level spot and is a likely bounce candidate.

Join In The Dance (50-1) owns speed for Pletcher. His lone win was accomplished in a sprint, and he figures to fade after six furlongs or so.

A few late defections allowed the inclusion of Atomic Rain (50-1) and Nowhere To Hide (50-1)…both seem up against it!

Mine That Bird (50-1) owns low speed ratings and appears over matched.

Best Bet

Now, how to bet the race. I suggest a win bet on Pioneerof The Nile, followed by an exacta box of Pioneerof The Nile, Desert Party, Hold Me Back, and Chocolate Candy.

Stay tuned for further coverage of the big race with odds form Las Vegas, best bet anaylsis from Robert Kendtra and trifecta picks from Andre Sanchez all to be posted later today.

Headlining the action will be the middleweight title bout between Anderson Silva and Brazilian Jujitsu standout Thales Leites. It is the most one sided match-up on the card according to the odds makers. At +350 (Bet $100 for a $350 profit) Leites will have his work cut out. On top of being one of the worlds most dangerous strikers , Silva is also a black belt in Brazilian jujitsu. The middleweight champion is available at prohibitive -550.

Rua vs. Liddell is an epic match-up. Both men were at one time considered the worlds best. For years fans could only dream that one day these two legends would meet inside the octagon. After years of waiting that day has finally arrived. Its a vital bout for Liddell in particular. He is nearing the end of a illustrious career and he is running out of second chances. Rua too has unperformed in his last two outings and needs an impressive performance to remain relevant in the worlds toughest division. This is a much close match-up with Liddell favored at -190, Rua is the underdog at +150.

Full UFC 97 odds are listed after the jump. Don’t forget to head over to Betus and Sportsbook to bet UFC 97. This event will be held outside the US so a quick reminder. Place your UFC 97 bets head of time to avoid timezone or PPV time issues.

Odds for UFC 97

Anderson Silva -525
Thales Leites +350

Chuck Liddell -175
Mauricio Rua +150

Antoni Hardonk +210
Cheick Kongo -270

Luis Cane -250
Steve Cantwell +210

David Loiseau -125
Ed Herman +110

David Bielkheden +200
Mark Bocek -260

Brian Stann +120
Krzysztof Soszynski -150

Ryo Chonan -189
T.J. Grant +170

Jason Macdonald -115
Nate Quarry -115

Denis Kang -350
Xavier Foupa-Pokam +300

Matt Wiman +120
Sam Stout -150

Also featured on the card is the heavyweight slug fest between Cheick Kongo and Antoni Hardonk as well as the promising light heavyweight showdown between Steve Cantwell and Luiz Cane. The preliminary card is more than stacked with the likes of Denis Kang, Jason MacDonald and David Loiseau set to kick things off.